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Another tragic possibility of last resort is engineered "Colour Revolution" to steer the Greeks on the right path. Considering how divided is Greek society with the Extreme Right prominently visible this is not such a far fetched scenario.
by Ivo on Mon Dec 29th, 2014 at 01:36:52 PM EST
well, we will see. But a color revolution is not needed. Only the right party needs to win the election.

I am not really familiar with the political situation in Greece. I read that Syzra currently is at 28% in the polls. Would they even have a suitable coalition partner?

by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:35:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the Greek election system, there is a hefty bonus in parliament seats for the largest party. In addition, some government parties might fail the limit. That's still not enough for Syriza, but might be enough for the anti-austerity parties (which include one conservative party that was apparently key to the presidential vote, having rejected a corrupt offer to buy votes).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ohh I feel the need for some number-crunching on the possibilities...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:54:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is fairly easy.

Bonus is 50 seats to biggest party, 250 seats are awarded roughly proportional. So 100+ seats are needed from proportional distribution if the coalition includes the largest party, 150+ if the coalition does not include the largest party, ie 40+% or 60+%.

In the last three polls you get roughly these percentages (average by quick look):
ND 29
Pasok 5

Syriza 33

XA 7

Dimar 1
Potami 7
Other 9

To enter parliament, you need 3% so Dimar - anti-austerity in election, then in pro-austerity government, then leaving government but collaborating with them - is gone. Looking at the EP election, the other is a varied collection of 1-2% parties so absent surprises those can be discounted. With 10% not represented, the amounts needed falls to 36+% and 54+%. So perhaps Syriza and ANEL (if they keep their numbers above the threshold) or Syriza and KKE.

Potami appears according to wikipedia (en, fr, de) to be some sort of lofty pro-European party that is heavily dependent on celebrity leader. They are members of the S&D group, but not PES. Socialliberal, but left and right is no good guide to pro- and anti-austerity in Greece. With their numbers and right-left position they should be natural partners for Syriza if they are anti-austerity. So are they anti-austerity?

Deutsche Bank apparently thinks so:

Deutsche Bank predicts victory of SYRIZA and coalition government with POTAMI | protothemanews.com

According to Deutsche Bank, following the unsuccessful election of President of the Republic, which by the way was to be expected, a new era of political uncertainty opens up which raises three main questions. What will be the reaction of Europeans in early elections, who will win the election and what approach the new government will follow?

Among other, the German Bank attempt to answer to the above questions and predicts concerning the elections, a victory of SYRIZA and coalition government with POTAMI.

(I haven't watched the video there.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 05:26:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 05:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who are the allies? Presumably not the KKE.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 06:59:30 AM EST
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askod suggests above ANEL (Independent Hellenes), but according to those poll results, they disappear.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 07:32:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DIMAR has stated they could work with Syriza, but according to every poll collected on Opinion polling for the Greek legislative election, 2015 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia since the EP-election they have been below 3%. ANEL is around 3% so it matters on which poll you use.

KKE is apparently against cooperation.

Greek legislative election, 2015 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

DIMAR MP Ioannis Michelogiannakis said that following another election the party could also work with a SYRIZA-led government.[14] DIMAR MP and member of the central committee of DIMAR, Spyros Lykoudis, stated his preference for a broader SYRIZA-DIMAR-PASOK coalition.[15]

Panos Kammenos, leader of Independent Greeks (ANEL) stated he favored a broad alliance of anti-bailout parties, excluding Golden Dawn.[16] Kammenos also proposed cooperating with SYRIZA in the 2014 local elections, suggesting their candidates could appear on the same ticket.[17] Following the rumors of a third bailout, Kammenos attempted to convince maverick ND and PASOK MPs to bring down the government.[16]

Dimitris Koutsoumpas, leader of the Communist Party (KKE), reiterated the party's stance against cooperation with other parties, stating alliances or partnerships must be done in terms of social movements, "not from the top down, where leaders sit down and find, one, two, three things they agree on and sign a program. Those alliances have been shown to have many bad side effects for the labour movement."[18][19]

And according to Deutsche Bank, Potami would cooperate with Syriza.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 08:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mystery solved, AFP can not read Greek, or perhaps understand the difference between these two logos:

It is the latter, ANEL, Independent Greeks that gets nine seats in the poll they base it on (page 2, seat distribution).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 08:24:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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