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A civil war in Ukraine (each side supported by Russia/the "West") is entirely possible. If it spills over to Nato member Poland, a scenario which would be not too unrealistic, the US would probably send troops. I don't believe that such an escalation is intended, but I am not sure that it can't happen.  
by Katrin on Thu Feb 27th, 2014 at 03:15:10 PM EST
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Russia isn't going to fight a proxy war against NATO one day's tank drive from Moskva - if it escalates to the point of proxy war, Russia will escalate clear up to real war.

And once you have Russian troops on the ground, NATO is going to back off. Keep funding crazies, Afghanistan-style, perhaps, but nothing more than that. Hard to see how that could spill over to Poland or the Balkans; I don't think there's that much overlap between the Polish crazies and the Ukrainian crazies. Belarus would be a more obvious flashpoint.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Feb 27th, 2014 at 03:28:43 PM EST
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