Yes, but below the level of shifting political alliances, what is the demographic balance between Russian speaking, Russian orthodox and the rest, and would the defection of Crimea significantly effect that balance? I suspect the annexation of Crimea could have the effect of uniting most of the rest of Ukraine, at least at a political level, against Russia, in an attempt to protect the territorial integrity of the remains of Ukraine Otherwise the future of Ukraine, as an independent state, is at issue.

I'm not sure that the shifting alliances of the past necessarily invalidates my thesis that Russia will gain Crimea at the cost of its dominant influence in rump Ukraine..

Index of Frank's Diaries