Far as I can see, Ukraines role as middle-man in supplying EU with gas and Russia with markets, should make a failed state scenario there unwanted by both the EU and Russia. This, and the fact that Russia appears satisfied with controlling Crimea should point towards things settling down along the current lines.

However, if the actors were that rational, bringing Ukraine to the brink of civil war in the first place would not have happened. So, there is that.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se