It's always seemed obvious to me that Crimea was a red-line case for Russia, and I didn't expect Putin to hesitate. I have a job believing that no Western™ analysts foresaw the move. Neocons might be that dumb, but the neocons aren't in the driving seat in Washington any more. Maybe you don't need to be a neocon to make the wrong calls. Either that, or it's as you suggest.

In any case, no one will do anything about Crimea. Just release some hot air.