What can stop Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine? | 158 comments (158 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

Ukraine forces launch counter-attack to end occupation in eastern city http://t.co/7OIMTALni9 via @guardian
— Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) April 13, 2014

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 04:46:07 AM EST

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

Either Kiev doesn't react and gets Crimea 2.0, or they react and give Moscow enough propaganda ammunition to justify an intervention to the Russian people and the Westerners naive enough to believe what they see on RT.

Acting is risky, but I'd say not acting is even riskier. This is what being a militarily weak neighbour to Russia looks like.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 11:55:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (4.00 / 2)

I suppose we can stop using this macro ironically now... :P

[Starvid's Rysskräck™ Technology]

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 11:59:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 1)

I'd say this is what being a failed state looks like.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 03:34:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

O rather, it's what failing a state from outside looks like.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 04:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 1)

Yeah, because Ukraine has not been crippled by the quarrels of its own homegrown oligarchs.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 05:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

Its economy has certainly been, but last time I checked, the oligarchs did not have their own Spetsnaz units running around in Donetsk.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 12:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 1)

I thought the failing of the Ukrainian state took place two months ago in Kiev, not last week in Donetsk.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 12:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

That was the failure of the Yanukovich government, then the occupation of the Crimea. No we are seeing what might well turn into the physical desintregration of Ukraine as a state.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 12:57:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (4.00 / 5)

That was the failure of the Yanukovich government, followed by the disbanding of the Berkut, the disarray of the military and police, and two months later here we are and we don't even know the extent to which the "provisional" government in Kiev has any actual control of the country. They have failed to follow through on their "ultimatum" to the rebels in the East.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 02:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (4.00 / 5)

Physical disintegration follows political disintegration. Recall the failure of the Yanukovich government was right after a highly publicised agreement between Yanukovich and the putative leaders of the "revolution", brokered by the international community.

Witnessed by
For the EU
Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister
Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister
For the Russian Federation
Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy

That's a black eye for Germany and Poland, too. But somehow that's supposed to be Russia's fault?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 02:11:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

Well, you see, the problem with that agreement is that the USA was not a party. Remember? Fuck the EU! (Not that having been a party to the agreement would have hindered the future actions of the US Government in any way.)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:04:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (4.00 / 7)

If Russia aims to annex eastern Ukraine, I think the conclusion of this thread is that there is nothing stopping them. So if Kievs goal is to avoid eastern Ukraine being annexed by Russia, their one and only chance is to gamble that Russia does not really want to annex eastern Ukraine. So they should try to avoid forcing Putins hand. Which means negotiations to accomodate Russia and the pro-Russian groups in eastern Ukraine.

Ordering in the army as the cabinet reportedly has done, risks massacres that forces or enables Putin to follow up his rethoric with troops. It is also a risky gamble, because if the army does not go, the cabinets claim to be ruling the country can be fatally wounded, encouraging other forces - local mobs, seperatist, contenders for central power - to take over local control.

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 13th, 2014 at 04:40:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

There is a real possibility Putin is bluffing. Taking Crimea without bloodshed was one thing, sending in an entire mechanized corps to batter down organized resistance is quite another.

Putin is clearly trying to destabilize eastern Ukraine to take control of it, either via annexation or indirectly via "federalisation". Do nothing, and the territory is lost. Try to stop it, and Putin might send in the tanks, or he might back down. Which it will be, I don't know. I do however know that Putin respects only one thing: strength.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 12:36:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What can stop Russian tanks after this? (none / 0)

It is looking more and more as if Kiev is the one doing the bluffing, but no one is paying any attention. The government in Kiev may well have little effective control over the Ukrainian military.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What can stop Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine? | 158 comments (158 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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