What can stop Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine? | 158 comments (158 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Why tanks? (4.00 / 3)

Because parachutists are light troops. The mechanized units of even the very weak Ukrainian army will be able to counterattack and sweep them away.

It doesn't matter that you and your friends are some kind of bad-ass superman Rambo guys when the enemy shows up with 50 tonne tanks with 125 mm guns, supported by rocket artillery.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 08:51:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why tanks? (4.00 / 6)

The central point is the lack of firm center of control over the Ukrainian military - the last minister of defense ordered the troops in Crimea to fight, they did not and he was fired (or resigned, depending on your sources). Will the Ukrainian military fight Russian invading troops or will they meet them with a resume in hand, expecting the same treatment as their Crimean colleagues, to be hired with higher wages and better pensions? Will they fight NATO troops? Will it matter what the government in Kiev says about it?

I bet Russia has better intelligence here then the west, but any troops sent to Ukraine from any other country is a gamble with the Ukrainian military reaction.

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by A swedish kind of death on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 11:44:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why tanks? (4.00 / 3)

Well, given the state of Ukrainian military (which makes even the Swedish military seem pretty OK), the main difference between the Ukrainians fighting or not will be at what speed the Russian mechanized spearheads can advance.

If they put up a fight, it will take several days, maybe even a week, for the Russians to reach their objectives, depending on what they might be. If the Ukrainians don't fight, it might all be over in 48 hours.

I think the Ukrainians will fight. And I think they might ask the Poles (not NATO) to race in to hold the territory west of the Dniepr, so the Ukrainians can focus 100% on the Russians in the east.

The Russian army is in a much better shape today than it was 10 or even 5 years ago. But I don't expect them to feel very happy about sending troops through Belarus just to run into the Poles. The Poles are in a very good shape.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 11:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why tanks? (4.00 / 3)

Let me add that even if the Ukrainians request Polish support, it is not in any way certain that the Poles will come, or that the Americans will allow them to.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 12:11:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why tanks? (4.00 / 3)

And if they take Lviv, they may not want to give it up again....

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 12:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why tanks? (none / 1)

Let's just say I really don't think the Poles would enjoy sharing more of a land border with Russia than they already do.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 01:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What can stop Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine? | 158 comments (158 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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