The central point is the lack of firm center of control over the Ukrainian military - the last minister of defense ordered the troops in Crimea to fight, they did not and he was fired (or resigned, depending on your sources). Will the Ukrainian military fight Russian invading troops or will they meet them with a resume in hand, expecting the same treatment as their Crimean colleagues, to be hired with higher wages and better pensions? Will they fight NATO troops? Will it matter what the government in Kiev says about it?

I bet Russia has better intelligence here then the west, but any troops sent to Ukraine from any other country is a gamble with the Ukrainian military reaction.

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