Well, given the state of Ukrainian military (which makes even the Swedish military seem pretty OK), the main difference between the Ukrainians fighting or not will be at what speed the Russian mechanized spearheads can advance.

If they put up a fight, it will take several days, maybe even a week, for the Russians to reach their objectives, depending on what they might be. If the Ukrainians don't fight, it might all be over in 48 hours.

I think the Ukrainians will fight. And I think they might ask the Poles (not NATO) to race in to hold the territory west of the Dniepr, so the Ukrainians can focus 100% on the Russians in the east.

The Russian army is in a much better shape today than it was 10 or even 5 years ago. But I don't expect them to feel very happy about sending troops through Belarus just to run into the Poles. The Poles are in a very good shape.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.