Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
You seem to be assuming that:

  1. Nato troops inserted into Eastern Ukraine would be greeted as liberators rather than occupiers (now where have we heard this before?)
  2. Russia would not shoot at "lightly armed Nato troops" inserted there.  Why ever not?  They can always claim Nato troops started the shooting first.  They could just bulldoze their way past NATO checkpoints. They could insert their own special forces (with unmarked uniforms)to take them on and claim they were local freedom fighters.

And what would "the West" do then?


"The West" cannot win a conventional war against Russia in Eastern Ukraine. It would be the most ignominious climbdown since - well Afghanistan - another war of occupation which isn't going very well.

Why take Russia on on precisely the terms it is best equipped to win on - a conventional war close to its own borders and amidst a region who's indigenous population is not disposed to support "the West"?

The West might win concessions using sanctions and trade and diplomacy. But only the truly stupid start a war they can't win.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2014 at 04:03:36 PM EST
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