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Putin risked the possibility of nuclear war in Crimea already, as well as the lives of his undefended and unmarked troops. That means, strategically, using simple Prisoner's dilemma game theory, only a similar willingness to risk such a thing on the part of the US can secure Ukraine from Russian tanks.
But that wouldn't have been true of President Palin, or some other future president of a similar stripe.
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin considered the US election cycle in his calculations.
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