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I do however agree that one of the key points that gets too little play in the discussion of Russian and NATO options is the stance of the Ukrainian military. Or lack thereof as it were. Would they shoot western paratroopers? Presumably that's what the upper officers were trained to do. Would they follow orders? Disintegrate without a shot being fired? Split?
Bekannt wurde unterdessen, dass Kommandanten ukrainischer Kriegsschiffe auf der Krim sich dem Befehl der Übergangsregierung in Kiew widersetzten, ihre Waffen zur Verteidigung einzusetzen. Der ukrainische Verteidigungsminister Igor Tenjuch sagte am Sonntag in Kiew, Russland sei es ,,trotz des Befehls an alle Kommandanten, Waffen einzusetzen", gelungen, die Schiffe zu übernehmen. ,,Bedauerlicherweise" hätten die Kommandanten selbst über ihr Vorgehen entschieden, sagte er.
I read that as a refusal to obey orders, but I could be wrong. In general, the position of the Ukrainian military is crucial and very little is known so the few datapoints can be interpreted in different ways. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
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