The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
From that point, which you can reach with off-the-shelf technology, improvements are basically a question of cost. Sustainable air travel using only off-the-shelf technology will not be cheap, but it performs a service of a nature that means it won't need to be.
Now, what would probably need to happen is a closure of most airports and concentration of the network into very large hubs, serving everything in a thousand-km radius, with rail links taking over the role of short-stop feeder. There is no technological reason that Europe needs two hundred airports if air travel is transcontinental-only. Ten should more than suffice.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
So I would imagine that, before we can use our renewables to make fuel, there is a period when air travel really has to shrink massively. It uses a LOT of energy. Although maybe it's more realistic to imagine that, since air travel would tend to be something the rich demand, it will stay strong even at the cost of a major catastrophe. But I was putting myself in the scenario of a clean society in the near future, which kind of eliminates such considerations. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Electricity provision is the obvious first target. Then heating and industrial processes, both of which can be electrified. Then inland transportation, which can be electrified and moved to more efficient modes.
Even were we to mobilize a non-trivial fraction of the gross planetary product in the service of such a program, this low-hanging fruit would still suffice to keep the program busy for at least a decade.
How the world would look after ten years of total mobilization against unsustainable business practices is difficult to predict. But one thing it won't be is averse to, or inexperienced with, industrial megaprojects as a solution to scarcity problems.
However, it would also more or less end the current era of globalization for the middling masses. This may be a good thing, in the long run, but it would also seriously mess up a lot of people's lives.
For example, I'm an expat in Japan. Visiting home would be more or less impossible with air fare in the $7000 to $8000 range for a single trip. Not on my salary, at any rate.
Sure, passenger liners may well revive in response, but given how awful marine diesel is, that's probably not a good idea, and anyway, most people can't afford to take a month off work for travel any more than they can afford a $6000 air ticket.
That's... doable, if not necessarily optimal. And if you hold your holidays on Midway, you can cut the transit time roughly in half.
Definitely becomes easier if you have a position that lets you telecommute for a few weeks, though.
For those who have the time and for time insensitive goods high tech sail/solar powered transport may become a factor. The average speed of the trade winds should increase. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
What you describe are major priorities. They are not, though, low-hanging fruits. Full decarbonisation of electricity production is a massive task, and one that will actually create a lot of emissions, which would thus have to be gained back (as would emissions from peaker plants). But that'd only be the start, as to de-carbonise other activities, electricity production would have to double.
And of course, there are other GHG than CO2.
The point is not just to "keep the program busy for at least a decade". It's to have started reducing CO2 concentrations before the end of the next one. Not emissions. Concentrations.
I don't see how that would be achieved without making sacrifices in terms of availability of air travel (OK, not total disappearance, but enough that visiting my friends once in a decade would be problematic -yes, we are talking Australia, New Zealand, Laos...) during the transition period. The alternative is to let some catastrophes happen. I believe it is the more likely scenario. We would have needed to start a massive program earlier. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
(I'm assuming that the only real challenge here is the politics - the technology we have pretty well in hand. Also, I'm shooting more for "survival of industrial civilization," and less for "keeping all our coastal cities," nevermind "avoiding serious catastrophes.")
Not optimal for business meetings, but there increasing prices until options like phones and video-chats are used more could decrease the number of trips. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Where price increases on flying (and better rail connections) can help is in the intracontinental segment. For capital-to-capital, sleeper rail already beats plane + 1 travel day + 1 hotel night, in terms of both cost and comfort. The problem is that the rail connections into the hinterland are so bad that you end up spending a whole travel day anyway. And then you're suddenly looking at a head-to-head plane vs. sleeper rail comparison, and that's not so hot cost-wise.
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 7 1 comment
by Oui - Feb 4 45 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2 8 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 26 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 31 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 22 3 comments
by Cat - Jan 25 63 comments
by Oui - Jan 9 21 comments
by Oui - Feb 7
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 71 comment
by Oui - Feb 445 comments
by Oui - Feb 314 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 28 comments
by Oui - Feb 2111 comments
by Oui - Feb 16 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 313 comments
by gmoke - Jan 29
by Oui - Jan 2735 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 263 comments
by Cat - Jan 2563 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 223 comments
by Oui - Jan 2110 comments
by Oui - Jan 21
by Oui - Jan 20
by gmoke - Jan 20
by Oui - Jan 1841 comments
by Oui - Jan 1591 comments
by Oui - Jan 145 comments