The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Russia wants Ukraine to remain in their sphere of influence, and are prepared to go clear up to "tanks in the streets" levels of escalation to get their way.
The Americans are not politically prepared to go there, and the European countries which are politically prepared to go there lack the military wherewithal to follow through, while the ones who could go to war from a military perspective lack the political inclination to do so.
So Ukraine is going to end up in the Russian camp. The only question is how many people are going to get shot first.
In that context, the best thing that can happen to Ukraine is losing quickly and decisively, because the alternative is to lose slowly and painfully.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Use of military force to quell protests shows how desperate the authorities in Kiev are. Army is too blunt of a tool to resolve political discourses, and very inefficient in urban areas, unless the government is prepared to kill scores of civilians and can expect the military to carry out orders without questioning. Russia learnt this lesson the hard way in Chechnya.
Where will the crisis go from here? I'm afraid making any forecast in this situation is virtually impossible. There are too many moving parts in it. But without dialogue between the government and leaders of the protesters, and the West keeping the pressure of further sanctions on Russia, the likelihood of Eastern provinces peeling off looks pretty high to me.
by gmoke - Nov 28
by gmoke - Nov 12 7 comments
by Oui - Dec 18 comments
by Oui - Dec 1
by gmoke - Nov 302 comments
by Oui - Nov 3012 comments
by Oui - Nov 2837 comments
by Oui - Nov 278 comments
by Oui - Nov 2511 comments
by Oui - Nov 24
by Oui - Nov 221 comment
by Oui - Nov 22
by Oui - Nov 2119 comments
by Oui - Nov 1615 comments
by Oui - Nov 154 comments
by Oui - Nov 1319 comments
by Oui - Nov 1224 comments
by gmoke - Nov 127 comments
by Oui - Nov 1114 comments
by Oui - Nov 10
by Oui - Nov 928 comments