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Yes, Ukraine is a failed state, but there is not yet a civil war. There is also still a central government, not empty, bullet-ridden halls of government and different warlords trying to install themselves as president. I say there is till time to pull back from the abyss and call a peace conference.

It would need representation from all factions with power on the ground and credible outside negotiators (since the European countries are a bit to close to the conflict, perhaps India or South Africa could provide some). A compromise might be reached along the lines of keeping Ukraine together, but with a lot of power decentralised to the regions, ensuring that neither the coupists in Kiev nor in Donbass are rounded up and shot. This should be acceptable to Russia, considering it is what they are pushing for.

The problem is that I doubt the Kiev government could survive the result, Maidan is still mobilised and might do another coup. Also if the western backers don't consider a compromise acceptable, but still prefer conflict, they would probably back nationalist radicals in such a scenario.

So while not likely to succeed, I think calls for a pre-emptive peace conference is the best any outside force can to for the people in Ukraine.

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by A swedish kind of death on Thu May 1st, 2014 at 04:11:10 AM EST
Yes, Ukraine is a failed state, but there is not yet a civil war. There is also still a central government, not empty, bullet-ridden halls of government and different warlords trying to install themselves as president. I say there is till time to pull back from the abyss and call a peace conference.
There have been two internationally brokered accords between Ukrainian factions which have not lasted the time it took the ink to dry on them. Why should we expect a "peace conference" to work?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 2nd, 2014 at 07:22:05 PM EST
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I did note that it is not likely to succeed. But for differences, the first one was while the Maidan crowd still had reason to believe they could win an all-out victory. And the second one in Geneva did afaik not include the eastern rebels, only the Ukrainian government, the west, and Russia.

Other then that, if the surrounding states wants to do something constructive, preparing Red Cross assistance and getting ready to accept refugees would be it.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat May 3rd, 2014 at 04:52:20 AM EST
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