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My feeling is that the reason the previous regime crumbled, and that the current one is crumbling, is the reluctance or refusal of the "forces of order" (police and army) to fire on their fellow-citizens.

In a sense, this is encouraging. The problem is that a point will be reached when the former nation will be sufficiently clearly divided into "us" and "them", to overcome that reluctance.

So not a failed state yet. A breakdown in authority, sure. Irreparable? Probably, given the apparent incompetence and lack of realism of the Kiev junta. But it wouldn't be that hard, probably, to stick the pieces together by calling a constituent assembly to determine a new federal structure.

Without knowing what's going on in the heads of the Kiev government, I imagine that the backing of the US and the EU enable them to harbour the delusion that their friends will help them to restore control on the rebellious territories. Somehow. So a bit more realism on the part of the "allies" would go a long way towards a solution.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 1st, 2014 at 06:41:14 AM EST

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