Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I'm skeptical of the impact of QE in general.  The studies I've read suggest it has a slight positive contribution to growth and inflation, but not much.

There's probably a small consumption effect as the Fed/BoE buy bonds at higher and higher prices and stuff cash into the pockets of investors.  But investors have very low propensities to consume.

Pushing down corporate bond yields probably helps to induce some investment, although direct spending and tax cuts to jack up demand would be much more effective.

To be honest, I'm not seeing much by way of bubbles that wasn't there before QE began.  And investors piling out of T-bills and corporate bonds in favor of gold and oil probably has little impact on the real economy.  As I said in Chris's thread, I don't think his picture with its "perfect correlation" shows any such thing.

I think the price swings in oil are more a function of expectations of future fundamentals and panic-buying and -selling than anything.  You can buy all the oil you want, but if it's not sold in sufficient quantity, inventories pile up and the market crashes.  The ones on his chart look to me like a visual representations of the market's reactions and corrections related to the various false dawns we've gone through since the recession ended.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 27th, 2015 at 05:06:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is plausible that the rebound of commodity prices after October, 2008 was funded largely by QE. It would require a detailed stock and flow analysis in order to demonstrate that thesis, and, somehow, that information is not available to the mortal man, and only partially available to to the demi-gods who are the inside regulators for the NY Fed. Carmen Segarra showed very clearly just how well that works for the public interest.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jan 28th, 2015 at 09:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Lots of things are plausible.

A stock and flow analysis isn't going to get you there.  That's still just storytelling.  You need a statistical analysis to suggest causation.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Jan 28th, 2015 at 02:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Occasional Series