Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I'm skeptical of the impact of QE in general.  The studies I've read suggest it has a slight positive contribution to growth and inflation, but not much.

There's probably a small consumption effect as the Fed/BoE buy bonds at higher and higher prices and stuff cash into the pockets of investors.  But investors have very low propensities to consume.

Pushing down corporate bond yields probably helps to induce some investment, although direct spending and tax cuts to jack up demand would be much more effective.

To be honest, I'm not seeing much by way of bubbles that wasn't there before QE began.  And investors piling out of T-bills and corporate bonds in favor of gold and oil probably has little impact on the real economy.  As I said in Chris's thread, I don't think his picture with its "perfect correlation" shows any such thing.

I think the price swings in oil are more a function of expectations of future fundamentals and panic-buying and -selling than anything.  You can buy all the oil you want, but if it's not sold in sufficient quantity, inventories pile up and the market crashes.  The ones on his chart look to me like a visual representations of the market's reactions and corrections related to the various false dawns we've gone through since the recession ended.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 27th, 2015 at 05:06:49 PM EST
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