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No, they have reduced interest payments due in this and future years quite significantly and helped enable quite a rapid reduction in the forecast debt/GDP ratio from last years all time high of 123.3%


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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 07:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That still does not explain how any of that ever reaches the real economy. Debt/GDP is not an interesting metric, so having it go this way or that tells you nothing much.

(On a minor point, when is that graph from? Clearly at least one of the columns is a forecast, but there could be several.)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 08:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.publicpolicy.ie/irelands-current-fiscal-profile/

The reduction in interest payments each year is real

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 08:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That graph is actually somewhat out of date (May 2013).  The actual out-turn has been somewhat better -  see here

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 08:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But of course you also have to factor in the distortion in Ireland's GDP figures - see The idiot/ eejit's guide to distorted Irish national economic data

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 08:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So how many houses are built because of those reduced interest payments? How many kilometer of railway track laid? How many MW of power plants built? How many fibers of internet backbone laid down? How many ships launched?

Unless these reduced interest payments actually manifest in changed government outlays into (or revenues from) the domestic economy, they remain funny-money moving around within the consolidated government balance sheet.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 08:53:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last budget (for 2015) was the first "post austerity" to include real increases in government expenditures- the previous trend was:
Graph 1: December Exchequer Returns (€000's)

Full text: Brendan Howlin's Budget 2015 speech

Gross current expenditure for 2015 will be just over €50 billion. This figure represents an increase of €429 million over the 2014 Revised Estimates.

This increase is targeted primarily at critical areas in Social Protection, Health, Education, Justice and Housing.

It is intended also that current expenditure will rise by further amounts in 2016 and 2017. The allocations published today contain some increases to meet service pressures. There will be further improvements announced next October, in line with the Government's priorities. The extent of such increases will be determined by future economic growth and by the level of progress made towards our medium term objectives.

I am also pleased to announce an increase of €210 million in Capital spending for 2015, to over €3.5 billion. There will be further increases in 2016 and 2017.

We are investing in our future and the detailed Capital Review, setting out priorities to 2020, will be published before year end.

This brings the net overall increase in expenditure over last year to €639 million, a position €2 billion better than envisaged in last year's Expenditure Report.

1.e the first small increases from a low base, but c. 2 Billion more than the further consolidation envisaged by the Troika.

AND FROM THE EU ECONOMIC FORECAST:
ie_en.pdf

Public debt is projected to fall to 107.9% of GDP in 2016, down from 123.3% in 2013. This marked improvement largely reflects the liquidation of the Irish Banking Resolution Corporation (IBRC)(45), along with the pick-up in growth

I.E  some of the bank bail-out costs are being unwound

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 13th, 2015 at 09:37:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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