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I do not think war in western Europe is realistic in this short timeframe. The populations of these countries would see a war between European nations as evil and distasteful for the most part. They can tolerate actions against evildoers such as dictators or terrorists, preferably far from home and with light casualties. The majority are too comfortable, too educated and too distrustful of politicians to be cajoled into a nationalistic fervor necessary to overcome their opposition to an aggressive war.  

I see the situation in the Eurozone leading towards  stagnation and a diplomatic split between Germany and the rest as they seem to live in separate realities. I do not see the Eurozone being dismantled because of a lack of politicans with the imagination and ability to create something else in most EZ-countries.

by chumchu on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 08:07:34 AM EST
Published by authority

Sorry Chum, we don't accept arguments from authority on this site

(and welcome to ET!)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 10:22:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by chumchu on Tue Feb 17th, 2015 at 12:36:33 PM EST
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"Germany" "lives in separate realities"

Euros will be short lived now, and the reality will catch them once the DM get to more appropriate 2 USD or 2 Francs.

Euro as a even worst Gold Standard could very well manages to bring wars back ( remember that Austerity was the talk of the day in France circa 1936, Germany being freed from GS, was investing like mad in its industrialisation, getting far ahead of its "masochistic" neighbour)

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 12:07:20 PM EST
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If I recall correctly, France was late to leave the gold standard because it had devalued the Franc wrt gold before returning to the gold standard, while the UK overvalued the pound, possibly thinking that asserting the old value as the new would make it so, which it did not. As a result gold flowed out of the UK and gold flowed into France as French exports were more competitive under gold. But that became a hollow victory when the UK, Germany and the USA left the gold standard.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 11:37:11 PM EST
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Be that you are right, but given (1) how easily the wide majorities of northern European populations could be cajoled into a semi-racist attitude towards southern Europeans to support crippling and anti-democratic austerity and "reforms", I have no such trust in the populations, nor do I think them too relevant given that most European states now have professional armies. In addition, seeing how fast and far things escalated in the Ukraine (not a country where the population sat with guns ready either), I disagree that the timeframe must be long.

On the other hand, the unspoken assumption at the start of my scenario, namely that between now and 2017 the EU and the Eurozone already began to fall apart with members leaving and institutions hollowed out, is not one I expect personally: I don't see the end of the Eurozone, either, and for similar reasons. But, if – as some others seem to believe or even wish for – the EU does fall apart, I am certain war is down the line on many fronts, the only question is its timeplan and magnitude.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 12:07:28 PM EST
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Perhaps I should mention that in my scenario, the German entry into (limited) war is modelled upon the German entry into the Kosovo War.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 12:43:28 PM EST
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The media in the Baltic states is crazed against Russia - and now against Greece, potentially France. A war could start tomorrow, and no distaste would be publicly visible.

The antagonistic method can spread very quick. Especially when borrowers cannot pay and creditors cannot take.

by das monde on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 09:27:26 PM EST
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