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If the current nuclear doctrine is applied, the german troops would never go through the border. The french nuclear doctrine is quite adamant about nuking any country that would cross french borders... Which means either you get a localized war in Luxembourg, either it's the end of it all.

Additionnally, I do not believe that current armies are able to fight traditional wars between modern states. The only forces in shape in europe are Britain's and France's. All the other countries have cut too much of their defence budget to get anything usable against a great power.

My last comment would be that, during the belgian stand-off between flanders and wallonia a few years ago, there has been a quite-military training on the french side of the border under the label "flanders terrorist are attacking in Lille, what should we do"...

by Xavier in Paris on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 05:52:53 AM EST
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The Polish and Finnish armies are in OK shape too.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 05:56:21 AM EST
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Judging from the exercises in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, some dirty warfare (state terrorism monopoly?) might be in the pipe.
by das monde on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 06:19:58 AM EST
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Small size and low rediness of armies makes dashes like the attact to N'Dnamena more likely to succeed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_N%27Djamena_(2008)

by Jute on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 06:51:31 AM EST
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If the current nuclear doctrine is applied, the german troops would never go through the border.

In my scenario, I assumed that the German government fully recognises this in the first invasion, but the second government is insane, while France also has to take a possible British return strike into account.

I do not believe that current armies are able to fight traditional wars between modern states. The only forces in shape in europe are Britain's and France's. All the other countries have cut too much of their defence budget to get anything usable against a great power.

I actually agree, that's why the Hungary–Slovakia war in my scenario quickly becomes a quagmire and France defeats Germany soundly twice, without nukes. But IMHO what comes after that is not peace but something like Ukraine or worse.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 07:00:08 AM EST
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Of course any future war will look like the Ukraine - 'terrorists' on one side, proxy states and 'aid' on the other.

The idea that national armies will go marching all over Europe in a WW2-ish kind of a way is way past its use-by date.

In any case, we may not live that long. Putin is being backed into a corner by the US, economically and militarily.

That's not a good thing to be doing to the world's biggest nuclear superpower.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2015 at 07:51:01 AM EST
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