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For one, I think it all goes to fast. There are bounds between elites to be severed, there are institutional connections (not least in the deep states) that would be a counterweight against open warfare, and there needs to be more propaganda to make warfare acceptable among European states again.

Same for the development of the EU. Even if the southern states left the north would run with the same institutions until they were reformed within the rules of the institution or abandoned for something else. The League of Nations for example existed until 1946 when it was dissolved and assets transfered to the United Nations. For the EU I think institutional paralysis is a more likely fate then quick re-boot. Once interests start heading in different directions there will not be enough collaboration to either reform or start something new.

The US is rather absent. Though I think the case of Slovenia is all to realistic, surely they would have opinions on NATO troops fighting and blockading each other all over western Europe. Unless they have gone isolationistic and elected Palin in 2016?

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 08:13:38 AM EST
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