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Effectively till Tuesday, as they have to turn in a plan by end of day Monday. If Shauble pisses all over it hoping to spook the markets it could accelerate his departure from Merkel's government. But who expects things to blow apart on Tuesday? I would say Friday at the earliest.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 04:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well the banks will be running out of money by Tuesday.
by generic on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 04:11:32 PM EST
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It depends on whether the agreement restores "confidence" among Greek depositors.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 04:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't really see why it should.

On the other hand, I don't see why there are any deposits left in Greek banks at this point, so who knows.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 05:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
deposits were at 164bl. Estimated now at 120b and falling by 3bl/week.
Not good but under control unless something worse happens which won't matter anyways.
by Euroliberal on Mon Feb 23rd, 2015 at 11:04:11 AM EST
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If Shauble pisses all over it hoping to spook the markets it could accelerate his departure from Merkel's government.
Wishful thinking?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 04:39:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps, I would certainly find his departure a good thing, but Angie has expressed her 'full confidence' in him. But perhaps he can implicate her in some of the contribution scandals that have dogged his career.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 11:58:40 PM EST
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Is there some kind of good cop bad cop relationship between Merkel and Schäuble? Merkel would need to back off too often to be statesmanlike if she would act like Schäuble while CDU would look too soft for voters without Schäuble's posturing.
by Jute on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 02:01:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is definitely a good cop bad cop. The following news was reported after Schäuble's categorical rejection but before his last-minute 3-hour one-on-one negotiation with Varoufakis (from the weekend Newsroom):

Eurozone ministers gather in Brussels for make-or-break talks with Greece | Business | The Guardian

Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, rejected a Greek compromise proposal.

Hopes of a deal have since risen, however, as it was reported that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, was taking a more conciliatory stance. Greece's €240bn bailout - orchestrated by the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - expires next Friday. Without an imminent deal the country faces the real prospect of running out of cash in early March because it is effectively locked out of the international lending markets.

However, Merkel's game is more cunning than simple good cop bad cop: she made every appearance of being fully occupied with the Ukraine matter.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 04:17:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're more likely to see the back of Vaorufakis than Shäuble's.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 04:03:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To be replaced, perhaps, by someone more hard line for Grexit?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 06:27:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, with a more political minister.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 07:34:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally, I saw Varoufakis doing a much better job being a politician than I expected from an academician/blogger.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 07:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Word in Brussels --- and I didn't get this from Quatremer --- is that the rest of the Eurogroup ministers don't want to have anything to do with him.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 10:39:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 10:41:22 AM EST
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They probably consider him arrogant and don't like to be lectured. This is from as early as January 15: Germany wants Varoufakis replaced for not having the qualities of finance minister
His reaction was triggered by Varoufakis' exposition at the Eurogroup meeting last Wednesday. "Instead of presenting his colleagues with a list of concrete proposals, he gave them a half-hour political speech." Quite a few of the ministers, added Poss, were desperately asking themselves how much of this they could convey to their governments or parliaments.
I read in El País that Tsipras himself was negotiating in Brussels Friday, which is consistent with Quatremer's claim that Schäuble will not speak to Varoufakis. The question is whether Tsipras will consider Varoufakis a liability because of this.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 10:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He's knowledgeable in ways they aren't, is opposed to the CW they consider minimally necessary to the proper conduct of EU business, and is a loose cannon.

Three characteristics you're not supposed to possess if you've got as far as they have in politics.

But he is the Finance Minister of Greece. What legitimacy do they have other than being the Finance Minister of their respective countries, and what right to dispossess Varoufakis of that legitimacy?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:28:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The previous Greek FinMin was Stournaras. A more buttoned-up friend of Varoufakis's, one who actually gave Varoufakis his first job. Being demure got the Greeks nowhere. Varoufakis and Tsipras actually achieved a small measure for Greece, which was largely because of Varoufakis's big mouth.

Plus, the Greek people really like the duo, and that will be THE most important thing going forward.

There are only two reason for Tsipras to change Varoufakis:

  1. Jealousy of V's popularity
  2. Change to a FinMin in favor of Grexit.
by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:32:34 AM EST
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I'll add this, since much of the criticism of Varoufakis reminded me of this quote by a US Civil Rights fighter and eventual US Congressman:

If you object to unfair treatment, you're an ingrate.  If you seek equity and fair consideration, you're uppity.  If you demand union security, you're un-American.  If you rebel against repressive management tactics, they will lynch and scalp you.  But if you are passive and patient, they will take advantage of both.-- Congressman William Clay, Sr., speaking to the AFL-CIO Federation of Government Employees, 1975
by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like what one hears from women in professional settings.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 01:49:35 PM EST
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Right now I'd like confirmation of this story from Greek sources: Draghi asusta a los socios y a Atenas
El pacto se fraguó en las horas previas a la reunión, con conversaciones de última hora entre el jefe del Eurogrupo, Jeroen Dijsselbloem; el primer ministro griego, Alexis Tsipras; el presidente del Consejo Europeo, Donald Tusk; el propio Draghi, el ministro alemán Wolfgang Schäuble y el italiano Pier Carlo Padoan, el comisario europeo Pierre Moscovici y la jefa del FMI, Christine Lagarde. Destaca la ausencia del ministro griego Yanis Varoufakis, que no estuvo en esa ronda previa.
Draghi spooks the partners and Athens
The pact was forged in the hours before the meeting, last minute talks between the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem; Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras; President of the European Council, Donald Tusk; the Draghi himself, the German Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Italian Pier Carlo Padoan, the European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici and the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde. Highlights the lack of Greek Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who was not in the previous round


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ECB cancels soft treatment of Greek debt in warning to Athens  John O'Donnell and Jan Strupczewski

(Reuters) - The European Central Bank abruptly canceled its acceptance of Greek bonds in return for funding on Wednesday, shifting the burden onto Athens' central bank to finance its lenders and isolating Greece unless it strikes a new reform deal.

The move, which means the Greek central bank will have to provide its banks with tens of billions of euros of additional emergency liquidity in the coming weeks, was a response to what many in Frankfurt see as the Greek government's abandoning of its aid-for-reform program.

The decision came just hours after Greece's new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis emerged from a meeting with ECB President Mario Draghi to claim that the ECB would do "whatever it takes" to support member states such as Greece.


I can only hope that Greece imposes capital controls or extends closure of the banks on Tuesday. Greece could remain on the Euro, but obviously could not service its bond debt. Athens should contest this move with the appropriate European legal authorities. Draghi just answered the question of whether the ECB would play hardball politics with the currency.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 01:15:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is, in these matters, usually helpful to check the date on the article.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 01:36:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Additionally to what Jake said decisions on these matters are taken by the governing council and not Draghi.
by generic on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 01:41:52 PM EST
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You reply to a report from February 20 with a news story from February 10, which is rather unhelpful. What happened here was that 10 days after the ECB declared Greek sovereign debt ineligible for refinancing, Draghi went to the Eurogroup and banged a few heads together to avert an immediate Greek bank meltdown and a soft Grexit, which apparently some of the finance ministers were pining for.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 01:48:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With apologies for using Google translate...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 02:29:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I googled a headline that came up from the googalate translation and search. It came back with that exact title and I failed to note the date. My bad.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 05:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reuters: Greece readies reform promises (February 22, 2015)
Tsipras did much of the negotiating for the deal rather than Greece's Eurogroup representative, Varoufakis. But sources close to the government said this reflected Tsipras's need to win backing from Syriza's left wing and his right-wing coalition partner, the Independent Greeks party.

Their support will be crucial in maintaining government unity during negotiations for the long-term agreement.

Likewise Tsipras needs to keep public support. Costas Panagopoulos, who heads the Alco polling firm, said the initial reaction was relief that Greece would stay in the euro. Greeks might even accept Tsipras's change in language and assertions that the troika is no more. "It may sound odd but this could turn into political gains," he told Reuters.



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 23rd, 2015 at 02:05:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If people were in good faith and understood what democracy means this would be OK.

Outsiders will not be totally acquainted with the culture of the group, so it is normal they will make the occasional blunder.

Only professional politicians and insiders will know how to behave "properly".

If one cherishes democracy and not having persistent oligarchies one would appreciate outsiders bringing fresh perspectives, and so patience would be advised.

Similar complaints are also tended against the UKIP in the UK and I find them unfair: This is what you would get when you get "new blood" (irrespective if you agree or disagree with their political views).

by cagatacos on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:32:53 AM EST
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But then telling them they are full of shit and have been killing people is not typically the start of a great friendship. It is something they needed to hear though.
by generic on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:41:32 AM EST
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Greece should insist that he be treated properly and let it be known that, so long as he is not, there will be continual leaks of verbatum transcripts of all meetings which he attends. And they should insist that Schauble be replaced for even better reasons than are claimed for Varoufakis. They just don't like his politics and his forceful assertion of economic realitiesl. TFB.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A defense of Varoufakis would be best done by Tsipras speaking in the EP forcefully but with a smile, as he does so well. (No expressions of confidence!) And he could make the case for Schauble to be replaced, especially as chair of the Eurogroup Ministers, (he is the one refusing to negotiate0, while noting that Varoufakis is going nowhere so long as Schauble remains. And he could then assert that anytime media leaks result in character assassination type articles against Varoufakis that the verbatum transcripts of what occurred, with video if possible, will be released. Assert that what Schauble and others find objectionable is that Varoufakis is highly effective at pulling down the lies on which current policies are based, and that, while critics do not like the politics he and Syriza represent, that politics is what got Syriza elected and will get them re-elected with an even larger majority.    

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 11:57:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, that would be silly and run against the adult in the room strategy.
by generic on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To add: Greece wants to talk macroeconomics, common sense and fairness. Moving to talking about personalities would be a win for the other side.
by generic on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would generally agree, but where the problem is continual and aggressive dismissal of anything that remotely makes sense from a macro-economic perspective there comes a time when this must be attacked. So long as it is not Greece and any semblance of a true left will be fighting on ground thoroughly well prepared by their opponents. This has been obvious since 2008.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
About the leaks, remember it was the first  Wed. meeting where the document was leaked first to Peter Spiegel.

If leaking to the press is so untoward, why did the Eurogroup do it first to embarrass Varoufakis.

And remember, Varoufakis tweeted Spiegel to write that his conclusions were dubious.

I think the Greeks learned a lesson. That negotiations should be conducted through the press. And indeed, they stuck to that principle all the way through negotiations.

by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
dodo:
I saw Varoufakis doing a much better job being a politician than I expected from an academician/blogger.
LBJ: "The art of politics consists of knowing when to hold a knife to a man's belly - and when to push it in."

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 12:05:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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