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This will be a Long war, and the Greeks will continue fighting long after everyone else has been bored into indifference, because they have no choice: they are fighting for their lives, whilst for Schauble, et al, it is a matter of keeping up appearances.

The longer this goes on, the more unthinkable a Grexit will become, and the stronger the Greek negotiating position will become, because the unsustainability of the Troika position will become clearer to all.

In the meantime the stranglehold of centre right austerity ideologies on EU policymaking will gradually weaken - simply because no one else is going to continue to do it indefinitely.  Elections loom, and elections matter, thankfully, still.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Feb 21st, 2015 at 06:30:26 AM EST
This is an excellent point since the conversation among many in Greece has always been, should Greece have defaulted rather than enter into these agreements at all. Papandreou's decision to call a referendum in hindsight was very telling. He was called a psychopath. European leaders tore their hair out when he did that.

Just when these people are screaming loudest, that's when you know you have them by the nuts.

The nature of the Greek loans back then would have allowed Greece to choose whom to repay and on what terms. Whereas the rest of Europe could have then dealt with recapitalizing the banking losses.

Greece, the argument goes, would have been shunned and treated as a deadbeat. I'd argue that the last 5 years of slander are much much worse than what would have been heaped upon Greece back then.

Having chosen the road of austerity and permanent punishment, the Greeks now seem committed. If they are forced to exit the eurozone, it will be the worst of all 3 possibilities.

Option #1: Exit the eurozone in 2010
Option #2: Stay in the eurozone with austerity for a decade or more.
Option #3: Go through 5 years of austerity and then exit the eurozone only to experience the same level of infamy you would have experienced in 2010.

by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 10:48:40 AM EST
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