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Before you'd celebrate, in spite of a very heated campaign, the turnout was a dismal 44.8% and the candidate of far-right Jobbik got 14.1% (followed by 4.6% for the candidate of the conservative-Green LMP). But, at least one can conclude that Orbán's newest idea for a smokescreen campaign, anti-refugee xenophobia based on Western European models (on the occasion of the massively boosted influx of asylum applicants from Kosovo), didn't gain (enough) traction.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 22nd, 2015 at 04:26:58 PM EST
does this co-operation show any blueprint for how the opposition will tackle Orban at the next election?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Feb 23rd, 2015 at 08:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At a purely tactical level, the interesting thing about the current co-operation is that the party leaders took backstage and gave their support to an independent who made his name in the local anti-internet-tax protests. I actually do think that doing something similar in the parliamentary elections would improve their chances.

Then again, remember the low turnout. There are no exit polls about voter movements, but the numbers could be interpreted as basically all 2014 democratic opposition voters turning out again while a quarter of Jobbik voters and a half of Fidesz voters staying home – in spite of Fidesz's usually successful illegal get-out-the-vote efforts. Meaning, Fidesz lost supporters massively but the opposition didn't gain. That's too little for victory. Fidesz support nosedived four years ago, too, but Orbán could regain enough in time for the election.

Further, the main opposition parties are still staffed by uninspiring people and both them and their media intelligentsia is still stuck in frowning at "unorthodox economic policy" (rather than just at the haphazard and hypocritical way Fidesz applies it), so I'm sceptical about them inspiring people even if people are further outraged by Fidesz. Jobbik has a greater chance at that, if it continues with its wolf-in-sheep's-clothing policy.

Finally, speaking of Jobbik, there is an example of opposition cooperation other than yesterday's election foreshadowing a much uglier scenario: in a small city in the most impoverished north-east, the Jobbik candidate for a mayoral by-election won with over 60% of the vote after the local Socialists chose to not run, reportedly because they preferred a Jobbik victory to the re-election of the incumbent.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 23rd, 2015 at 10:49:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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