I think this gives too little credit to the way the Greeks played the different sides of the Troika off against each other.

By negotiating directly with the Eurogroup, rather than the Troika as a whole, they managed to leave the IMF and ECB outside the room where the deal-making happened. As it turns out, the Troika couldn't maintain internal discipline: The party actually present at the table disproportionately gave concessions on areas valued by the parties not at the table.

What surprises me is that the Troika allowed their interlocutors to split their coalition like that. Because that is a rookie mistake. I'm starting to think the Eurogroup might actually be an amateur night clown parade that has managed on bluff, bluster and congenial local oligarchs up to this point, rather than any real talent or aptitude for serious negotiation.

That is potentially very, very good news for everyone involved. (Well, except the Bundesbank, but fuck the Bundesbank.)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.