Alekos Flambouraris, the government affairs minister, has already begun uttering the fatal word "delay", as if were possible to delay an IMF payment without triggering a total collapse of confidence. Syriza insiders warn privately that default is becoming an alarmingly real possibility. "It is so bad that anything could happen. I can't talk any more, the phones are bugged," said one official.

He blamed the European Central Bank (ECB) for setting off a "self-fulfilling deposit flight" from the banking system by refusing to accept Greek collateral in exchange for loans. This decision was made within days of Syriza's landslide election, and before EMU's elected leaders had issued any opinion.

The ECB's pre-emptive move is seen in Athens as counter-insurgency warfare against the first radical-Left party elected in Western Europe since 1945. It will not be forgotten lightly.

The outflows were brisk even before that. Deposit losses reached €12.8bn in January. This is showing up in the "Target2" payment data of the ECB system. The Greek central bank's liabilities to the rest of the EMU network rocketed from €49bn in December to €76bn in January as capital flight accelerated. They may have hit €100bn by now.

This is double-edged. Creditors have even more to lose if Greece spins out of control. A full repudiation of debt to the EMU institutions and states would cost over €300bn. It would be the biggest default of all time, by an order of magnitude.

I had read the same post by Yves but decided not to quote any of it. She spent years with Nomura and has the perspective and experience of a large bank bank executive. She has much more than that, but that was her home for so many years it is not possible not to be seriously influenced by that mind set. Bankers have never dealt easily with revolutionaries, except when they can easily have them crushed. And what is happening is much more political economics than economics a la 'mainstream' economics, which likes to pretend politics has nothing to do with economics. Yves knows this also, but it is hardly her long suit.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

In addition, the Eurozone core is convinced, especially Germany, that the financial risks are finally ringfenced and Grexit is manageable.

I think this is key.

While Germany believes that Grexit is manageable, Grexit gets ever more likely, because what reason is there for Germany to compromise?

And it has to be clear eventually to Syriza that it is impossible to satisfy Germany and save the Greek economy.

Hence - Grexit.

Spain's economy minister is happily wading in on the Greek debate again today after getting in to a bit of hot water earlier in the week.

Luis de Guindos is sticking to his guns, repeating his comment that Greece will need a third rescue in the region of €30-50bn.

De Guindos told a conference in Barcelona that Europe would use the four-month bailout extension secured by Greece to assess what progress has been made, and what the next move should be.

We have given ourselves these four months to one, see what the real situation is, to see how Greece has met conditions and to try and establish what happens next ... which is fundamentally a third rescue.

He added that ministers at next week's eurogroup meeting would consider Greece's liquidity needs and debt maturities.

De Guindos comment earlier in the week that the eurozone was working on a third rescue package for Greece ruffled a few feathers.

In response, a spokeswoman for eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem insisted that finance ministers were not discussing a third bailout.

One assumes he's talking about an extend-and-pretend package like the last two, on condition that the Greeks stick to the rules that ensure it will be unsustainable...

Still, it seems surprisingly honest and lucid of him to say it.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}