Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The IMF and ECB would take a $15 billion hit this year if they force a default. So, take careful aim and see if you can only blow off a toe or two. Then the question becomes: "who holds the Greek Treasuries and how forthcoming will they be to able to extend and pretend?" Forthcoming I believe. Do you really believe that their principles are worth $15 billion a year? If they take that kind of hit it is a sign that they see Greece's actions as an existential threat to their whole system - which it is. But they only up the ante by calling the debt. That action also raises an existential threat to their own continued wealth and power.

I recall reading about 11% yields for holders of Greek treasuries in 2014. Many of them seemed to be hedge funds. I would bet that a lot of those bills are spread around Eurozone banks. They needed to get returns somewhere. Looks like about $15 billion in Treasury bills all together. More hits to the same suspects in 2016. Of course if they force a total debt repudiation by Greece the entire structure of the new ESFS will almost cerainly dissolve, unless the money to cover those out year liabilities is already in the fund, which I have trouble believing. So another piece of paper ass cover dissolves in the rain.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 3rd, 2015 at 01:48:15 PM EST
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