The 2nd Migrant Wave to Germany | 265 comments (265 topical, editorial, 2 hidden)

Majority of British for Brexit for the first time

51% supported a Brexit while 49% were against it. Undecideds where counted out. ... In the July survey 45% were for staying in the EU, 37% were for leaving, 18% undecided. In the current poll 22% of EU supporters said they could change their opinion if the refugee crisis worsens. Statistically a toss-up since the difference is in the margin of error.

Germany's response to the refugee crisis is admirable. But I fear it cannot last - Doris Akrap - Guardian

But the refugees haven't time to wait for "us" to work out whether Dublin III or Schengen need to be overhauled . The breakdown of these agreements is already happening.
But as the Germans share their bread with the refugees, Angela Merkel made clear in her speech on Monday that she won't accept Italy, Greece or Hungary not pulling their weight and opening their borders. She also made clear that all the refugees from the Balkan states will be sent back immediately, as they are not in need of protection.
As a child of a "guest worker" who grew up in Germany in the 90s, I can't claim to be completely impartial about this debate. Phrases such as "Germany can't take all refugees in the world" or "They can stay, but do they really need an apartment on their own?" give me the creeps. I hear them from conservative politicians. I hear them from colleagues and friends, none of them racist.
... But when I listen to the "good Germans", I often ask myself: what is going to happen, when the new refugees demand more than a tent, a bottle of water and a slice of bread? How will German society deal with this next turning point? What if it turns out that not every refugee has the skills to equip them for the "made in Germany" brand? ... Or will "Willkommen" be just a slogan on the doormat again?

If the scenes of this summer are repeated next summer then there will be a backlash: 'We did our part, now close the door - the air coming in is too cold!' Sweden is the only country with a clear majority for taking in more refugees and that will change too.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 10:59:39 AM EST

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 1)

Let's go two steps further in your prediction. After the backlash you expect and the attempt to "close the door" that would follow, what reaction do you expect to the inevitable failure to stop the migration wave?

Myself, being pessimistic, I won't exclude apocalyptic scenarios. On the other hand, I can also see another kind of backlash: all these "not racist" "Germany can't take all refugees in the world" people getting a dose of reality, and falling silent not because they lost their concerns or suddenly began to like foreigners but because they recognise forces greater than they can control.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 12:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 1)

We'll go through all the motions (without the highly-armed border patrol vigilantes like in the Southwest of the US). When the backlash has played itself out hopefully the refugee stream will have reduced itself to a trickle like in the US 2007. Otherwise, the border protection regime will grow harsher, a sizable segment in central European society will keep harping about illegal immigrants maybe not enough to win elections but enough pull things to the right. Like in the Euro crisis the simmering resentment will be most dangerous. And Schengen...

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 01:15:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 0)

For that matter, are you making these predictions as an uninvolved spectator, or is there some action you are recommending (to forestall or mitigate your prediction)?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 12:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (4.00 / 4)

As someone with 'Migrationshintergrund', I have more than an average interest in preventing xenophobia from settling in the mainstream. Aside from the measures needed to integrate the refugees already here,

Massively hike contributions to UNHCR because they are severely underfunded. It's so much more effective and less life-threatening.
Likewise massive support for the Italian, Greek, and Turkish governments. Something that should have been done years ago but now is a good time as ever to throw them some money.
Make a decision in the Syrian war. If Assad needs to be helped to victory to stop IS so be it. Or find some other way.
This is minor: later on, Merkel will have to come out and just say that people shouldn't pay thousands and risk their lifes to make the trek. I know desperate people will ignore that and I know that it won't go well with her current image as a benevolent mother and our image as the current 'world champion of humanitarian relief' but you can't leave out the signaling. There are push factors and there are pull factors. Between those are the cold sea and barbed wire.
And for heaven's sake pass an immigration law. They should have done it in the early nineties but "we are not an immigration country!" was the tenor in the CDU. Maybe they have learned a bit by now.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 01:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 1)

just say that people shouldn't pay thousands and risk their lifes to make the trek

Would Merkel suggest Russia?

Tajikistan's Russian Dream | Foreign Affairs

Since the end of the Tajik civil war in 1997, Tajikistan has sent an increasing number of migrants to Russia. Most of them are men, and they now number over a million, or around 50 percent of all of Tajikistan's working-age males. These workers take odd jobs all over the country: some join the fishing crews off of the Kamchatka Peninsula; others sell food and knickknacks as street vendors in Moscow; most make their living in urban construction. It is hard to overstate the importance of the wages they send home. Indeed, Tajikistan is, as measured by share of GDP, the most remittance-dependent country in the world: at the equivalent of 47.5 percent of its economy in 2012. Between 1999 and 2013, this money helped lower Tajikistan's poverty rate from 96 to 36 percent.

by das monde on Mon Sep 7th, 2015 at 03:26:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 0)

Why not.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Tue Sep 8th, 2015 at 02:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction Game II (none / 0)

Europe is apparently a strong preference for the relatively civilized, educated. Ask Greece, for example.

Speaking of Greece, the situation on Lesbos has its extreme, the Aegean as well.

by das monde on Wed Sep 9th, 2015 at 03:17:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The 2nd Migrant Wave to Germany | 265 comments (265 topical, 0 editorial, 2 hidden)

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