I read of two reasons: one, the Assad regime is bleeding out and hope of any positive outcome is lost for the secular middle class; two, the situation has worsened in the big refugee camps housing millions in Turkey.

What I did not read any explanation for is the similarly strong up-tick in refugees from Afghanistan and Pakistan. As for what makes it a perfect storm, the third simultaneous wave from Kosovo and the rest of the Balkans itself, methinks the simultaneousness is accidental.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}