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Slight discrepancy in percentages:
"William Crawford - 41 e.v. (11.2%)
Henry Clay - 37 e.v. (13.0%)"

Would House Speaker Ryan not be the obvious beneficiary if neither Clinton or Trump got 270 ev? Would he have to stand in the General Election to qualify or could anyone enter to prevent any candidate reaching 270 ev? Could Jeb! or Romney stand to deny anyone 270 ev?  It's hard to see anyone breaking up the Dem/GOP duopoly and actually winning enough EV to prevent anyone reaching 270. A Sanders run would more likely enable Trump to win.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 12:46:57 PM EST
The percentages are of the popular vote. Sorry for laziness.

Yes, Paul Ryan could be in a good position. But states start closing independent registration soon (North Carolina on June 9, etc), and thousands of signatures have to be gathered.

If the election would be as close as in 2000, a few leaked votes could mean a big circus. Low probability, surely. If an establishment Repub would be preferable while Hilary sinking, fielding yet more candidates to chip away from Trump might help.

by das monde on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 01:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since EV's are (mostly) awarded on a winner-take-all basis, such a third-party candidate would have to win at least a few states.  That is not easy.
by Zwackus on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 06:36:25 PM EST
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An example of how this might happen would be if Kasich were to run and win his home state of Ohio. The Ohio  "sore loser" law only prevents someone who lost the primary there from running in the general. Kasich won the primary there.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 08:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Were Kasich to run in Ohio he would be likely to run also in Pennsylvania and Indiana, perhaps elsewhere as well. I certainly have no sense of what might happen to EVs in that case.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 3rd, 2016 at 12:17:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A transformation is not supposed to be easy. But when it happens, the Universe conspires for you.

Given the usual bland personality choice among the candidates, a charismatic and socially savvy candidate would certainly draw attention regardless of political inclination - not unlike Trump now. There is definitely some vacuum bordering at electorate expectations.

by das monde on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 11:46:57 PM EST
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