Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
It has been argued that if Article 50 was not committed to in the first 24 hours, then it is never going to be initiated.

various legal commentators beforehand were suggesting that it might not actually be this easy,  

 the UCL constitution unit pointed out in February that the wording of article 50 was that article 50 could only be invoked by the country, there are no provisions to expel a country (this had been noticed during the Greek crisis, but it would need a treaty change to force this through, and the chances of smaller countries ratifying the changes after seeing Greece  shredded by the banking crisis  seem somewhat slim.

The constitution unit argued that if the remain vote lost,  the only thing that could sensibly happen is that the prime minister not activate article 50, however they didn't see how they couldn't be forced to do this by the UK Parliament. Cameron by his resignation has sidestepped this, leaving the article 50 declaration for his successors

If a government attempts to make an article 50 declaration the next problem pops up,  an Article 50 declaration can only be made "in accordance with the countries constitution" Here we have an unwritten constitution problem, because there is no written rules then the  constitution is spread across multiple pieces of paper, One of these is the Scotland act, and there we have a problem, Scotland can refuse any changes to its legal system, leaving the EU would be a major change to the legal system so Scotland can say No.

The same problem appears to happen with Northern Ireland, although through the rather more indirect route of the Good Friday agreement. The EU is the Guarantor of various segments of the peace agreement,  several segments of the Northern Irish political system have indicated that there would be a legal challenge to any Article 50 decision through the constitutional courts.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 01:55:51 PM EST
several segments of the Northern Irish political system have indicated that there would be a legal challenge to any Article 50 decision through the constitutional courts.

So there's no negotiation until Art 50 is invoked, but Art 50 can't be invoked without constitutional challenges?

And there's serious talk of waiting until October anyway.

This gets better and better.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 02:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and the legal challenges can't happen till someone gets an article 50 vote through parliament

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 02:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guest post: The referendum now poses a serious threat to Parliamentary Sovereignty
The Scotland Act 1998 contains a provision that the Scottish Parliament cannot do any act inconsistent with EU law. Under what is still called the Sewel Convention (even though Sewel himself is only slowly recovering his reputation since he was photographed wearing an orange bra and snorting cocaine in the company of a prostitute) and is now S.28 (8) of the 1998 Act:

'it is recognised that the Parliament of the United Kingdom will not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters without the consent of the Scottish Parliament.'

Withdrawing from the EU would affect 'devolved matters, thus any legislation to do so would (normally) require the Scottish Parliament's consent. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in very clear terms that she would encourage it not to give this consent, and indeed it seems inconceivable that Holyrood would do so if asked. Accordingly, runs the argument (if I have grasped it correctly), the UK Parliament could not lawfully pass the legislation that would be necessary for it to leave the EU.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 02:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The ultimate judgement of the linked article invokes Burke on the sovereignty of the conscience of the individual MP and his best judgement as to the risks or benefits to the polity as a whole, and that simply accepting the opinion, however expressed, of some or all of his constituents when his conscience tells him they are wrong would be to sacrifice the essence of the British constitution.

This might get the UK out of this particular dilemma, but is hardly likely to resolve the ongoing disaster that is governance in the UK. IMO, only a politician who can articulate a positive program that would benefit all, not just the top 10% of professionals, is the only way to move forward on a permanent basis. Just as in the US, demographic are in favor of such a development and leave voters are dying every day.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 03:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
someone did a back of an envelope calculation with huge assumptions earlier that said if absolutely nobody changed their opinion, by the time the negotiations had ended over 1/2 a million out voters would have died off and at the bottom end of the spectrum an extra million remain voters would be added which would mean that leave would be a minority opinion by then

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 04:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And it is the future of the young that is being trashed by a bunch of drunk, bitter, misdirected racist bastards. But the conclusion about the demographics needs to get into the mainstream media, if only by LTE.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 06:01:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Note: Not just by drunk, bitter, misdirected racist bastards. But very visibly so.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 06:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
looking at the vote distribution by education, you'd think that this was the high water mark too, every year seeing 50% of 18 year olds going to university

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 08:26:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These considerations are the basis for a strong and coherent argument to remain. All that is left is to find the proper face to put on the decision. Probably the best is to maintain that legislation is required to trigger Article 50 and that successive attempts to pass that legislation has failed. After six months to a year of frustration have a general election.

If both the pro-business Tories and the anti-Blairite Labor can hold around 3/4 of the current membership of their parties the new government would likely also not be able to pass such a bit of legislation. This is not without risks, but it is preferable to preemptively capitulating to the UKIP and Boris. And if Labour can put forward a positive program to improve the lives of the 90% it might win the election outright.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 01:36:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
photographed wearing an orange bra and snorting cocaine in the company of a prostitute

And people thought The Ruling Class was satire.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 04:58:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
God, these bastards know how to live, don't they?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 11:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ruling Class was actually an early docu-drama.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 01:38:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
he was photographed wearing an orange bra and snorting cocaine in the company of a prostitute....

I ask y'all, who among us?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 11:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Occasional Series