An uncontrolled train of people who suddenly felt invited to take the Balkan route to a 'glorious' future in central Europe. Interviews in Turkey at the time bear out this out and it's not like IS and Assad were dropping bombs 100 meters behind the refugees in Turkey or Lebanon. People did think everyone was invited because of the accidental pronouncements by Merkel and other high-ranking politicians

Well, let's see. Merkel announced at the end of August last year that Germany would register Syrian refugees, regardless of their country of origin, thereby suspending de facto the Dublin accord.

Let's look at refugee arrivals into the EU via the Mediterranean, a reasonable proxy for the total nuber.

Sea arrivals by sea to Greece (green) and Italy (orange) in 2015

Sure enough : the numbers increased after Merkel's announcement. Looking at the shape of the curve, it's not easy to use it to support an argument that people suddenly felt invited into Europe. Obviously, there is no possible influence on the August numbers. And in practice, anyone who crossed the Mediterranean in September, in particular if they are a family, had to have made the decision to liquidate their lives and leave Syria prior to Merkel's announcement.

So ... Maybe there was an effect on the November numbers? People who decided to chance the long, dangerous trip to Europe because of Merkel's announcement? It may plausibly have added tens of thousands. Perhaps the numbers might otherwise have peaked in September instead of October.

But bearing in mind that anyone "interviewed in Turkey at the time" had already been desperate enough to leave home and become a refugee in Turkey :  A possibility of moving to Europe and being a refugee there, rather than being turned back at the border, or returned to Turkey subsequently, undoubtedly precipitated a displacement of large numbers of people who were already refugees.

And these are the people you don't want the EU to admit. They should be Turkey's responsibility. After all, Turkey was  enthusiastic supporters of the Gulf war, the root cause of the current refugee crisis. Wasn't it? Unlike a majority of the EU countries, especially those central European ones who don't want to take any refugees. They were against the war. Weren't they?

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}