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What "Things Going Wrong" Can Look Like - Yonatan Zunger
I'm reading this as "1933 playbook continues on schedule, pace slightly higher than last time: something between maybe 1.2x and 2x, but without the possibility of a major land war to show up on the horizon."
I don't know how likely this is but yes it's at least orange alert.

A Clarifying Moment in American History - Eliot A. Cohen - Atlantic

Precisely because the problem is one of temperament and character, it will not get better. It will get worse, as power intoxicates Trump and those around him. It will probably end in calamity--substantial domestic protest and violence, a breakdown of international economic relationships, the collapse of major alliances, or perhaps one or more new wars (even with China) on top of the ones we already have. It will not be surprising in the slightest if his term ends not in four or in eight years, but sooner, with impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment. The sooner Americans get used to these likelihoods, the better. ...

For the community of conservative thinkers and experts, and more importantly, conservative politicians, this is a testing time. Either you stand up for your principles and for what you know is decent behavior, or you go down, if not now, then years from now, as a coward or opportunist. Your reputation will never recover, nor should it.

... The biggest split will be between those who draw a line and the power-sick ... [who] fatally compromise their values.

... In the end, however, he will fail. He will fail because however shrewd his tactics are, his strategy is terrible--The New York Times, the CIA, Mexican Americans, and all the others he has attacked are not going away. With every act he makes new enemies for himself and strengthens their commitment; he has his followers, but he gains no new friends. ... He will fail most of all because at the end of the day most Americans, including most of those who voted for him, are decent people who have no desire to live in an American version of Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey, or Viktor Orban's Hungary, or Vladimir Putin's Russia.

I'm not that sure. Trump was explicitly elected to break things. Quite a lot of people think the authoritarian axis has the right idea. We'll see but the damage will definitely outlast its creators.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Jan 30th, 2017 at 11:14:47 PM EST
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