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Coming back to my first diary's argument, no matter who will be elected president on May 7, the party or coalition who gets a majority of seats at the National Assembly will in practice run the country.

Forget about France's supposed "presidential system": the president has little choice but to appoint a prime minister and a cabinet from the parliamentary majority.  If only because the National Assembly can overthrow the cabinet with a simple majority vote.

This is a configuration ("cohabitation" between a prez and a PM of opposite sides) that happened a couple of times (1986-1988, 1993-1995, 1997-2002) and the balance of power between the president and the prime minister has always been clearly in favor of the latter.

Sarkozy is reportedly planning to lead the LR campaign to win a majority at the National Assembly and be able to rule even in the event of a - probable - Fillon loss.

by Bernard on Sun Apr 16th, 2017 at 04:34:44 PM EST
Yes, but there is little likelihood of a coherent majority. Whatever the presidential outcome, it's likely that LR will have the biggest group in parliament, by virtue of having a functioning political party and well-established candidates... which is not the case of any of the other three blocs.

The blood-letting on the left is going to be completely horrifying. I don't know that anyone has a clear vision of how it will play out nationally; I think it's best approached by examining a polity that one knows in some detail. In the Lyon region, unless the fratricide calms down, there will be a boulevard for LR and Macron's candidates.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 16th, 2017 at 05:03:20 PM EST
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European Tribune - Comments - French presidential elections 2017: First Round
 In the Lyon region, unless the fratricide calms down, there will be a boulevard for LR and Macron's candidates.  

Will LR and EM be the ones reaching the second round and then facing of against each other? Shouldn't at least one candidate form the left reach the second round and then gather the remaining behind them?

by fjallstrom on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 02:56:34 PM EST
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It depends. "En Marche" has promised to present new candidates, civil society etc. but often, incumbent MPs have declared their support... in Lyon, several PS have defected to Macron, and logically will get the endorsement.

Then there is the fact that both the Insoumis and the Communist Party are running candidates, against each other, for the legislatives. There will also be an official PS (actually, PS/EELV alliance) candidate, everywhere. Unless.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 08:28:57 PM EST
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You might have cut yourself of there.

Did you mean, unless there is a deal this will often mean no left candidate over 12.5%?

Which is the limit for the second round if I understand the election system correctly.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 01:43:58 PM EST
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That's the difference with the presidential election where the second round is a run-off between only two candidates who got the most votes during the first round.

For the legislative elections, all candidates who get a number of votes of at least 12.5% (1/8) of registered voters can run in the second round (and then the FPTP system applies).  

As I mentioned in my diary 5 years ago, 3-way or even 4-way second rounds that were a rarity during the 1970s and 80s have become more prevalent with the rise of the FN as a third major party.

by Bernard on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 08:15:48 PM EST
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Nevertheless, even the legislative elections could break the mould and fail to give the successful Presidential candidate a legislative majority.  For instance if either Hamon or Fillon are further squeezed, it's hard to see their parties doing well in the legislative assembly elections. And Trump has proven that being moronic is no longer a bar to success.

Looking at it from afar, it looks like late breaking undecideds will swing the election. I suspect that may favour Macron the most, with Le Pen benefiting from the enthusiasm of her base and a possible shy Tory effect.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 16th, 2017 at 05:06:59 PM EST
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