Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
tbh, last week's bomb blast came at a bad time for the Labour Party. They were buidling up considerable momentum after the Care Home gaffe in the Tory manifesto and looked set to hammer them hard.

Sadly, everything has stalled and given the tories the chance to re-consider their game plan while Labour possibly lost their best oportunity.

That said, Rawnsley is right; in this Presidential election, Theresa May has been the one making the unforced errors.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 09:59:43 AM EST
May has been hopeless. As expected, she has revealed herself to be an over-ambitious kook who Peter Principled herself into Number 10.

Except for near-infinite if rather nervy ambition and an authoritarian streak as wide as the M1, she has none of the skills needed for competence in politics - such as being charming and personable, intelligent, strategically gifted, and not an alien vampire from a Hollywood hell dimension overly attached to a wardrobe chosen by unemployed clowns.

If she was any more tone deaf she could be leading a boy band. The more people see, the less they like.

As one of the innumerable pundits who litter social media pointed out, the last time there was a swing this big before an election was 1945. That didn't end well for the Tories.

The scale of her inability to campaign with even the tiniest hint of competence is really quite surreal. She has been driving around the country in the battle bus - with exquisite irony, the same bus used by the Remain campaign - hosting "rallies" of literally tens of hand-picked faithful, who are all bused with her to hilariously remote locations from which the public and most of the press are excluded.

She tried to make "Strong and Stable" a talking point, but she did it so ineptly it became a viral joke.

She pigeon-holed Macron at their last meeting and tried to start a "So - about these negotiations..." conversation. He immediately said "non", and this left her completely non-plussed, as if she really hadn't expected it might be a likely response.

Of course she may still win, because too many British voters are too misinformed - and frankly too thick - not to fall for her act. There are literally tens of millions of voters whose higher brain functions are so atrophied that they have decided she will "Do the right thing", in spite the evidence suggesting that she couldn't find the right thing if someone handed it to her on a golden cushion with a "This is the right thing" label tied around it after a Wagnerian trumpet fanfare.

Will she definitely win? No one knows.

I no longer expect intelligent decisions from the British electorate - or at least not from enough of the British electorate to make a difference.

On the other hand, there has been a huge, unprecedented leap in first-time voter registrations, and most of them aren't May fans.

The Tories have been showing signs of desperation - spamming social media with ads and sending out a troll army to try to influence voters. There's a solid push to vote tactically against them - which is encouraging, but not necessarily enough.

Whatever happens, the country continues to be hopelessly fractured - the idiotically tribal mostly older, mostly poorly educated, but insufferably smug and condescending Tory faithful, at loggerheads with the mostly younger, mostly professional, more tentative and questioning cosmopolitans.

One pundit - Robert Peston - has suggested May has misread the mood. There are now enough people sick of food banks, austerity, threats to the NHS, threats to the police and other services, Brexit inflation, murdered disabled people, people who are declared fit for work who die a few weeks later, and terrorist attacks to swing the vote in favour of a less North Korean political approach.

Let's hope.

The reality is that - as usual - the result will be decided in a hundred or so marginals, and everything else is noise.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 11:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you have the time, it would be great if you could re-work this comment into a diary to adorn our front page...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 12:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed. I can link punditry ... and not much more.
by Zwackus on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:11:47 AM EST
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I saw an intriguing rumour this morning that, with Amber Rudd now more or less replacing Theresa May in any situation where unscripted pre-vetted questions are possible, that May might step down after the election.

I think your comment about the Peter pinciple may well be correct and May has been found wanting in many situations where a calm unharried approach is favoured. She has probably realised it and the numerous photos of her strange facial expressions can't all be bad moments, it's like regular photographers have clued in to what sets her off and are queuing up to get the shot. This suggests she knows shes not up to it.

She couldn't just resign and let a new leadership contest happen because, frankly, the last one destroyed the credibillity of everyone who took part. So, this could be a planned "clean slate" election.

She wins what was supposed to be an easy victory and then resigns, leaving emerging talent, in this case Rudd, to build a case for their election.

Of course, the theory breaks down a little bit in that May was supposed to bleat "strong and stable" all the way with everybody else kept out of the limelight and no chance for Rudd or Patel (god forbid) to step forward.

So, whilst this is one of those wild internet rumours that's almost certainly based on nothing more than a cheese inflected dream, there's a strangely attractive logic to it

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 09:51:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
May will release her grip on power when her fingers are prised off it with crowbars and not one second before.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 10:45:24 AM EST
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This election was supposed to be a procession to a 100 seat majority. With the polls as they are, I suspect the grandees have already been to see her

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 11:17:12 AM EST
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My guess too.

Dimbleby accused the media of anyti-Corbyn bias yesterday, so I'm wondering what's going on there - it's  a bit like Satan accusing the home help of turning the heating up too high.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe the ex-Bullingdon Tory boy is trying to hang on to the last tatters of his alleged BBC impartiality by a faux day late dollar short protest about how nasty everybody is being.

Or maybe some people in the BBC are getting worried about blowback if Corbyn wins. It's not just the long list of tory personalities in the senior ranks at BBC News, it's the almost complete absence of any Labour people.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was thinking about this today, after a Tory troll had a go at me for pointing out the obvious Tory bias.

The bias is absolutely unquestionable. As you say, there are exactly zero household name BBC journalists who aren't Tory supporters.

Labour gets some support among comedians and other entertainers, but the mainstream news teams have become a Tory closed shop.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 12:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for confirming my suspicions. That is the sort of development that occurs before some major development.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mainly Macro - Simon Wren-Lewis - Theresa May

The Conservative plan for this election was for it to be about personalities rather than policies. Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn. The question that the Conservatives want people to be thinking about as they cast their vote is which of the two do you think will be better at negotiating a good Brexit deal for Britain. And the polls suggest that many have made up their mind the answer is May.

Making a choice based on personalities may not be a completely stupid thing to do. However people with little knowledge can be extremely poor judges of character. I shouldn't really have to argue the case for this, but simply point to the current POTUS. How anyone could believe that he would improve the healthcare system and sort out the financial sector is beyond me, but then I had read a lot about him so it is difficult for me to imagine what someone less interested in politics might think. But we know in other situations that brief contacts can be very misleading: job interviews are an obvious example, as are interviews of prospective students. We think we can judge character with very little information, and we often fool ourselves in that respect.

Or take, as an another example, Theresa May. Some of us may laugh at the endless repetition of `strong and stable', but good propaganda is always based on a half-truth, and the half truth here is that many voters do think she is a cautious operator and a safe pair of hands. It is likely most people get this belief not from a detailed examination of her past actions, but from how she comes across in sound bites and interviews on the TV.

The reality seems rather different. Her actions since becoming Prime Minister appear ill-judged and reckless. Take, for example, the pointless attempt to prevent parliament voting on Article 50. A strong and stable Prime Minister would (with a small amount of research) have realised that very few MPs within her party were prepared to be seen to ignore the referendum, and that therefore she would easily get her way. Instead she fought and lost a pointless battle in the courts. It had not been the first time she had wasted public money in this way.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It links to an old Telegraph article about May's catalogue of errors at the Home office and her personal failings that is truly extraordinary.

Media Guido - jonathan Foreman - Read in Full : Article Pulled in full by Telegraph after pressure from May Camapign

eproduced in full below is a Telegraph article by Jonathan Foreman* headlined "Theresa May is a great self-promoter, but a terrible Home Secretary", which was pulled after pressure from her campaign. It is excoriating........

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amber Rudd is actually standing in for Theresa May in the leaders' debate. Streaming at http://bbcelection.twitter.com

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 06:37:50 PM EST
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Amber Rudd is actually standing in for Theresa May two days after Rudd's father died.

The Sun has tried to play the sympathy card to excuse Rudd's woeful performance, but the more people learn about the background story the angrier they get.

This has exploded all over FB and Twitter. Even hardcore Tory voters are appalled.

May has become That Shitty Heartless Boss Who Drops You In It. I don't think she can recover from this.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 09:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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