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Interesting discussion along this thread. However, looking at the cold numbers, it seems the Conservative party is still in for a majority of seats at Parliament. Like in the US, in the UK you do not need to reach 50% of the vote to gain your seat. Thus, a country wide vote above 40% almost certainly guarantees a majority.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:33:45 AM EST
yes, but the polls are in motion and nothing is yet settled. 10 days to go and it's all to play for.

Even if the Tories win, having blown a colossal lead I think May is now damaged goods and may not last long.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 07:28:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which leads to some fun scenarios.

Either the Tories are thrown into a leadership battle immediately after the election or there's a hung parliament and some sort of what we'd call a "rainbow" coalition here takes power after protracted negotiations.

Either way, assuming there isn't some miracle and the whole idea of Brexit gets binned, you're looking at delays that could push real Brexit negotiations into the autumn.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 09:30:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Looking at the polls, the Conservatives do not seem to be loosing that much, 5% at best. The real move is Labour climbing at the expense of smaller parties.

I would expect the majority to remain. However, it for sure will not deliver the "stronger hand" May was seeking.


by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It all depends on the youth vote; like with Bernie Sanders, if the young vote, Corbyn wins.

They are massively under-represented in polling but have registered to vote in massive numbers. But....it all depends on whether they turn out.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any plan predicated on young people turning out to vote is probably doomed to failure.

They do, indeed, turn out occasionally: Obama 2008.  But the more likely is they won't:  the US elections of 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 04:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, I aint holding my breath either, especially as the weather forecast for thursday is pretty vile, which never helps turnout

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 05:00:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would read the chart somewhat differently.  The Tories got a huge surge when the election was announced which then flattened and has now been reversed. This surge corresponds almost precisely with a precipitous decline in the UKIP vote.

Labour, on the other hand, have been climbing steadily and consistently firstly at the expense of the Lib Dems and smaller parties, and now more recently at the expense of the Tories themselves.  May's TINA narrative has clearly been shattered and all the late breaking momentum is with the Labour.

The chart doesn't show undecided voters, but I would guess much of Labour's gain has also been due to undecided voters gradually moving into their camp as the campaign progresses.  If Labour can maintain this momentum, the election could be too close to call.

However the Tories only have a tiny majority now, so almost any victory will give them some extra seats which they will tout as an endorsement of May and her approach. In the meantime the Brexit clock is ticking and I can't see any of this strengthening the Tories hand in the negotiations.

I would expect the EU negotiating team has gamed out the consequences of no deal and will be asking themselves what the UK has to offer that would be better than that.  Given the UK has offered almost nothing to date, the mantra "no deal is better than a bad deal" applies to the EU as well.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 08:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most recent YouGov poll points to a hung parliament with May losing her current slim majority.

Corbyn has achieved astounding successes against a firestorm of establishment opposition. The BBC have been nakedly biased against him, the Guardian has sniffly conceded that he's not the complete loser they said he was, but they're still not endorsing him, and he's only getting reasonable treatment from Sky (ironically...) and Channel 4.

FB trolls continue to troll, and dark ads on FB and YouTube are raining down on everyone in a marginal.

But the Tories may still be losing - which is remarkable. This was supposed to be an easy win, but now May is likely to get her P45 no matter what happens, and if there's a hung parliament the horse trading around Brexit is going to become very interesting indeed.

I wouldn't say I'm optimistic, but it's possible hasn't quite captured all of the hard core working class xenophobes she was courting. Some of them may even have realised that she's a vile person who means them harm. This insight is geographically distributed - the Midlands adore her, not so much elsewhere - but it boils down to one perception: is she a responsible and adult part of the establishment, or is she a two-fingers fuck-you fascist role model like Boris, Farage, and even Thatcher?

The xenophobes can't get enough of the latter, which is one reason Farage/UKIP became so popular. The xenophobes have the development level of angry teenagers, and they love their rebellious politically incorrect anti-heroes, to the point where they're utterly blind to their real motivations.

After flirting hard with them at the last Tory conference, it's possible May has played it too straight to win their unquestioned support in the numbers she needs. If she becomes Nanny Government instead of Maggie Fuck Off Europe it's all over for her. She absolutely needs their vote.

Corbyn is - of course - far too straight for them, and they have nothing but blistering contempt for him and all of his educated, responsible, professional, adult supporters.

But a significant proportion of the xenophobes stay at home, he wins by default, because May has already alienated the traditional older and more comfortable pensioner vote with the Dementia Tax.

With a week to go, Tory posters and flyers are not fluttering in all the usual places. There is some concern among the grandees.

There will be more name calling and general sliming from Tory HQ over the next week, but the last rumour I heard was that they're trying to focus even more on May as the lynchpin of the campaign - which makes me happy, because if they continue to be this tone deaf it can't do their chances any favours.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 12:19:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, although I see a lot of Tory posters (I'm in deepest tory Essex) even here there are fewer than normal. Equally I'm seeing Labour posters and I almost never see those here

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 07:05:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just listened to the Guardian podcast and the concesnsus view is that this is an odd election cos usually the winning party wins across the board. this time they believe that the Tories will win massively amongst the old and lose catastrophically with the young.

But the old vote and the young don't.

Also, there's a view that Labour are building up massive leads in certain constituencies but, across many that matter, they're not doing much of anything at all. So, the polls may be correct (but the tory lead is probably a lot larger amongst real voting intentions), but the geographical spread of the vote isn't helping Labour

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless the young vote (Brexit) and the old don't (May and care stuff, etc). Wonder how enthusiastic the old are to get out and vote Tory this time?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, it's just a few days away. We'll find out soon enough. I suspect that Corbyn is going on TV tonight cos he's done rather well of late and knows he need another heave.

Meanwhile the tabloids seem to be co-ordinating their attacks, probably changing subject each day to find which mud sticks.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't agree with the "xenophobes" argument.

Sure, there was a large segment of Labour voters who allowed Ukip to appeal to their worst instincts. They naturally followed May when she started foaming at the mouth and quoting Churchill.

But when Corbyn changed the subject, they listened. And evidently are flocking back to Labour.

Something similar nearly happened in France. Had the presidential campaign lasted a couple more weeks, Mélenchon might have peeled off enough FN voters to win the presidency. And the world would be a very different place.

I've said it before. Sometimes changing the subject, rather than confrontation, is a better tactic for everyone. If Corbyn wins (and a hung parliament counts as a win) with a progressive, inclusive, kindly agenda, then the xenophobia will subside. Slowly.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 10:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You also saw this with Sanders. And I remember our very own redstar being rather cross with Mélenchon at the last election for over emphasising attacks on the FN.
by generic on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 01:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm never sure that redstar's political motives are entirely pure.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 07:58:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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