Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Except that the very fact that Corbyn seemed reasonable, credible and statesmanlike is so much at odds with his tabloid stereotype that he is a loony left idiotic blatherer that it may give a lot of relatively low information voters pause for thought.  

May on the other hand, did nothing to energise her base or persuade the unpersuaded. There are only so many times you can get away with repeating the same mantra - "no deal is better than a bad deal"  - which leads people to expect that she will not deliver a deal - whereas Corbyn has promised he will.

Also, no one believes Labour will be able to win a majority on their own.  If they are forced to coalesce with the Lib Dems and SNP to form a government there is the prospect of second referendum on the deal, which should keep the Remainers happy.

The problem remains that the Tories only need less than 40% of the vote to gain a majority and increase their seat numbers.  Unless there is some very smart tactical voting at constituency level for the leading anti-Tory candidate, I can't see the Tories actually losing.

That is unless there is a repeat of the 1945 election where a war weary people voted to avoid having to listen to more Churchillian warmongering guff. Could May really piss people off that much?

One thing seems clear. The EU negotiators have no strong incentive to make many concessions to Theresa May, and every incentive to send her home with next to nothing. Let the pillaging of London's financial services and the UK's few remaining leading aerospace and IT companies begin...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 04:05:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with the idea that the public perceive Corbyn as a frothing at the mouth IRA supporting commie is that the media have been going on about it for so long with almost no corroborating evidence that the public seem mostly to have arrived at the opposite conclusion.

Yes, you can find some people here and there who cite issues with Corbyn himself as their reason for not supporting him, but you invariably end up discovering that these people thought Ed miliband, Gordon Brown and even Blair were left wing beyond the pale. In other words, Corbyn hasn't lost any votes over it cos they were never gonna vote Labour anyway.

There isn't going to be another coalition, whatever the result. The Clegg/Cameron Rose Garden love-in has ensured that the idea of a formal government coalition has received the kiss of death. Corbyn has already announced he will form no coalitions and I see no reason to doubt him. If Labour are the largest party, they will attempt to negotiate a platform for Government on a case by case basis. It's not a good way to govern but it's better than the tories.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 04:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used the verb coalesce lightly there - I didn't mean a formal coalition.  Sinn Fein would hardly join a government even if they did take their seats in response to a formal commitment to hold a United Ireland referendum. It would make little sense for the SNP to join a UK government if their objective is to leave the UK. The Lib Dems have just been burned by being in one.  So no, I was referring to them all voting for a Corbyn led Government in return for formal referendum commitments in each case.

Corbyn coming across as credible and reasonable has two potential benefits:  It reduces the fear factor that could drive Tory base turnout and it might encourage dissatisfied undecided voters who weren't going to vote - on the basis that it makes no difference or Labour has no hope anyway - that they do have a genuine alternative worth voting for. Corbyn was polling very badly on issues such as trust, reliability, competence etc. Now he is demonstrating the opposite and raising the morale of those who weren't going to bother to vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 07:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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