Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The most recent YouGov poll points to a hung parliament with May losing her current slim majority.

Corbyn has achieved astounding successes against a firestorm of establishment opposition. The BBC have been nakedly biased against him, the Guardian has sniffly conceded that he's not the complete loser they said he was, but they're still not endorsing him, and he's only getting reasonable treatment from Sky (ironically...) and Channel 4.

FB trolls continue to troll, and dark ads on FB and YouTube are raining down on everyone in a marginal.

But the Tories may still be losing - which is remarkable. This was supposed to be an easy win, but now May is likely to get her P45 no matter what happens, and if there's a hung parliament the horse trading around Brexit is going to become very interesting indeed.

I wouldn't say I'm optimistic, but it's possible hasn't quite captured all of the hard core working class xenophobes she was courting. Some of them may even have realised that she's a vile person who means them harm. This insight is geographically distributed - the Midlands adore her, not so much elsewhere - but it boils down to one perception: is she a responsible and adult part of the establishment, or is she a two-fingers fuck-you fascist role model like Boris, Farage, and even Thatcher?

The xenophobes can't get enough of the latter, which is one reason Farage/UKIP became so popular. The xenophobes have the development level of angry teenagers, and they love their rebellious politically incorrect anti-heroes, to the point where they're utterly blind to their real motivations.

After flirting hard with them at the last Tory conference, it's possible May has played it too straight to win their unquestioned support in the numbers she needs. If she becomes Nanny Government instead of Maggie Fuck Off Europe it's all over for her. She absolutely needs their vote.

Corbyn is - of course - far too straight for them, and they have nothing but blistering contempt for him and all of his educated, responsible, professional, adult supporters.

But a significant proportion of the xenophobes stay at home, he wins by default, because May has already alienated the traditional older and more comfortable pensioner vote with the Dementia Tax.

With a week to go, Tory posters and flyers are not fluttering in all the usual places. There is some concern among the grandees.

There will be more name calling and general sliming from Tory HQ over the next week, but the last rumour I heard was that they're trying to focus even more on May as the lynchpin of the campaign - which makes me happy, because if they continue to be this tone deaf it can't do their chances any favours.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 12:19:39 AM EST
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