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At least one side will end up eating its words -- and both will if they settle on a compromise.

Au contraire, most people who bother reading election manifestos will expect something of a compromise: the question is, how much influence can Macron ultimately wield with Germany and the Eurozone as a whole?

He can always makes his commitment to fiscal consolidation dependent on progress on a Eurozone budget/finance Minister. The chair of the Eurogroup could fulfil that role, and, to appease German concerns, the budget doesn't have to huge to begin with.  

Spending it to help lift Greece out of a debt death spiral,to assist refugee accommodation throughout Europe, and to counter act the worst effects of Brexit would be politically popular.  

It could be funded out of a Euro-wide "solidarity tax", the proceeds from UK exit or market access payments, or external tariffs in the absence of the latter.  A Tobin tax on Euro currency transactions would be another option.

Macron would have to build a Eurozone consensus to overcome German and fiscal conservative opposition.  That would be the real test of his leadership skills.  Hollande, to my knowledge, never worked particularly hard to build a Euro wide consensus on anything.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 10:34:20 AM EST
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