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Completing divestment of total UK share from total EU bloc trade balance is an arithmetic exercise. It is the subject of the formal joint notice to WTO. Nominally this difference positions UK by "default" for preferential quota and tariff treatment by EU
Tariffs placed by the EU, at a Most Favoured Nation level of 3.2 per cent upon agricultural products exported from Northern Ireland, would have significant adverse effects, whilst average WTOlevel tariffs on agricultural imports into Northern Ireland would create inflationary pressures.
To the extent UK goods and services can be segregated from those originating in EU27 at every point in any supply chain by product code is the political exercise of Phase II settlement in which the UK has thus far, apparently refused to participate. Which is to say, Tory gov has deferred to EU authority at bi-lateral ("no deal") -> WTO-level specification. And I expect Tory gov to default to this defensive strategy with every other prospective trade partner.
In the esri paper, distribution of UK trade to each EU member --deranged from political, heterogenous human prerogatives as well as FX hurdles to investment and sales-- predicates a persistent, erroneous belief that UK is free to dictate bi-lateral trade arrangements with each member. This a silly, incongruous basis by which to project EU bloc relations to the UK.
Because EC tariff quota mediate members' third-country trade.
+50% is exaggeration, when delta 0 to 3.2% will do to dramatize the disadvantages conveyed by BREXIT. Withdrawal from a customs union.
Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
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