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I have always viewed reports of tens of thousands of jobs moving instantly as over-blown and somewhat beside the point. Yes EU regulators won't except "brass plate operations" as constituting domicile for market access purposes and so significant numbers of senior decision makers will have to relocate to 5* Hotels in EU cities for 3 nights a week at least. More operations will move over time.

But the most important implications from a political point of view is that tax revenues on large scale profits and large salaries will also move deprive the UK Exchequer of a crucial revenue source. In addition the primacy of UK law in settling contact disputes will be challenged and lawyers in EU capitals will be glad to pick up the business. Dublin, with the same language and similar common law legal system to the UK, should target this business in particular. Trillions of $ in financial derivatives require expensive lawyers to broker. Hopefully the oversight will be sufficient to prevent the taxpayer being put on the hook for losses.

Downstream support services, property values, and future investment flows will gradually follow, but the actual employment migration may not be all that great, to begin with, at least. From an Irish point of view I am far more interested in smaller UK industrial and food companies looking to set up smaller EU bases which can be located in smaller rural Irish towns and don't require rarefied skill sets. Despite a return to rapid economic growth, smaller rural towns in Ireland remain depressed, and will not be helped by large financial firms moving some operations to Dublin.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 22nd, 2018 at 06:17:59 PM EST
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