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Support for Brexit is down to less than 40%
For those interested in more detail see Peter Kellner's piece in the Guardian The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed
There is a campaign amongst the (predominantly remain supporting) youth to turn out the vote next time. Many who were too young to vote in 2016 are now eligible. By the time of another vote, there will have been about 1.2 million deaths in the UK, mostly older people and I assume biased to 'leave'.
Independent of Kellner's survey, and without anyone changing their mind, there is likely to be a narrow majority for remain next time. That in itself would explain the reluctance to have a vote; a narrow swing to remain could be thought to be more unstabling than the status quo.
Many forms to ask people's opinion and conclude how a new vote will turn out. Indeed, the turnout can also be worrisome as everyone is clear about one matter: "We're all tired about politics and Brexit. Let's get on with it."
○ What UK thinks: EU
Do you agree or disagree that 'Anything less than a clean break from the EU will be a betrayal of the Referendum vote'?
A new referendum is a huge risk. You need a very good plan to placate on the one hand the gratuitous lies from the Leave campaign, but more importantly, Facebook and their acolytes. Even then, there is no guarantee things will turn out your way.
I see it wiser to take down Labour's official path: move on with a light Brexit, remain in the single market and strike a Customs Union agreement with the EU. Years later adhesion can be re-considered.
If the choice is between Conservative Brexit and Labour Brexit, why even bother to vote?
The only people with a real political problem with the EU are the Troskyist/Stalinist leftist fringe and the hard nationalist right. Everyone else who is anti-EU has been duped into believing that the EU is opposed to their brand of politics when in fact the EU has no difficulty in accomodating a very wide range of political policies and traditions indeed.
It is not the EU's fault that national electorates have been drifting ever further right and putting great strain on the social democratic foundations of the EU.
Index of Frank's Diaries
No it's not the EU's fault, it's the ECB's, but people are conflating the two.
Understandably... There's some guilt-by-association.
'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
It used to be only central Europeans who saw no distinction between left and right. Now it's the whole bloody continent.
(Probably overstating the case, but Italy and France are the latest victims)
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
... there is nothing in the Corbyn election manifesto which falls foul of EU rules. So you can be anything from a Corbynista to a neo-liberal and find little that is objectionable in the Treaties.
George Peretz QC has a related analysis in the Guardian today.
Four reasons Jeremy Corbyn is dead wrong about EU state aid
I was struck by his comment
The real problem is not the state aid rules but the UK's own policy. The UK gives much less state aid per head than most EU countries, under-using the scope that it has within the state aid rules to support (for example) industrial training and regional development. And though Lexiters complain that the state aid rules could be an obstacle to a Labour government, in my experience they never get beyond abstractions about the "neoliberal" nature of those rules to actually set out the policies that a Labour government may want to implement that would not be permitted.
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