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I wouldn't trust a simple 52/39 split in an opinion poll to deliver a majority in an actual referendum once the sectarian fears are whipped up, but a 56/40 split in the event of a hard border is pretty decisive. And that is before the economic effects of a hard Brexit kick in. I don't think Unionists (and the DUP in particular), had any idea how much a game changer Brexit would be. See Newton Emerson on this...

Don't forget many Unionist farmers also have a lot to lose from Brexit, and any soft unionists with socially liberal attitudes - yes, there are a few...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 11:09:54 AM EST
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