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Brexit would boost support for united Ireland, poll finds
The poll carried out for Our Future Our Choice, a campaign group of young people calling for a "people's vote" on the final Brexit deal, found that 52 per cent of people in Northern Ireland would vote for a united Ireland if the United Kingdom quits the EU.

The online poll of 1,199 people from Northern Ireland was conducted by Deltapoll between August 27th and August 30th.

One of the questions posed was this: "Imagine now that the UK decided to leave the EU. Under these circumstances how would you vote in a referendum on the constitutional arrangements of the island of Ireland?"

More than half - 52 per cent - said they would vote for a united Ireland, while 39 per cent said they would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

The poll also found that more would vote for a united Ireland in the event of a hard Border. In such circumstances, 56 per cent said they would vote for unity in a Border poll while 40 per cent responded they would vote to remain in the UK.

A total of 94 per cent of those surveyed from a "nationalist heritage" said they would vote for unity in the event of Brexit. However, that nationalist figure dropped to 73 per cent if the UK did not leave the EU.

Among people who described themselves as neither from a nationalist nor a unionist heritage support for a united Ireland dropped from 59 per cent to 23 per cent if the UK stayed in the EU.

---<snip>---

The campaign group held a similar poll in Scotland of 1,022 respondents. There 47 per cent said they would vote for Scottish independence in a future referendum if the UK left the EU as planned while 43 per cent said they would vote to stay in the UK. But if Brexit was stopped, 47 per cent said they would vote for Scotland to stay in the UK and 43 per cent said they would vote for independence.

Emphasis added

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 2nd, 2018 at 11:50:18 PM EST
That's actually pretty mind-blowing.
Northern Irelanders are very aware of being the meat in the sandwich, they are already living in an economically depressed region and they are far more likely to have thought through the impact of Brexit than the average Briton.

Given the extremely sectarian nature of local politics, a surprisingly high (to me) fraction of habitual unionists to change position.

But representative democracy being what it is, that's highly unlikely to result in a majority of elected representatives in favour of Irish unity.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 10:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't trust a simple 52/39 split in an opinion poll to deliver a majority in an actual referendum once the sectarian fears are whipped up, but a 56/40 split in the event of a hard border is pretty decisive. And that is before the economic effects of a hard Brexit kick in. I don't think Unionists (and the DUP in particular), had any idea how much a game changer Brexit would be. See Newton Emerson on this...

Don't forget many Unionist farmers also have a lot to lose from Brexit, and any soft unionists with socially liberal attitudes - yes, there are a few...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 11:09:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If May hadn't had a fit of over-confidence and called an election in which she lost her working majority, I'm quite sure Ulster would already have been sold down the river. The conservatives care deeply about the union, except when it gets in the way of something they want. Believe me, they'd sell their grannies for sixpence if they thought it would help their political agenda, Ulster is absolutely disposable.

As it voted heavily to remain in the EU, it would have been a democratic convenience to simply place the EU border down the Irish sea and then carry on regardless. It would certainly have made negotiations a helluva lot easier.

But Theresa had her fit and finds herself tied to the medieval anchor of the DUP, whose only response to any idea of change is no. So, ther she sits, absolutely stuck

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 06:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And logically, all the Irish government and the EU Commission have to do is wait for her government to fall and a new one not dependent on the DUP to be formed for that last major roadblock to be lifted. Unfortunately for Theresa May, having tied herself to the DUP, she has little option but to go down with them, or else dump them and throw herself on the mercy of the electorate.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 06:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Her Govt will not fall before March, so it's all moot.

She is almost completely isolated within the tory party, which would normally be cause for any number of coups. However, neither side of the party trusts anybody else to bring about a brexit they can live with. An ultra would be unacceptable to the Business firsters and vice versa, so neither side will agitate against her in case the new leader is somebody they cannot accept. So, May is almost untouchable, yet despised by all.

But then again, there's Boris, whose ambition could lead to any form of rebellion. However, I think he'll restrict himself to making her life as difficult as possible until brexit is delivered, then he will launch his broadside.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 07:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh, wouldn't he just run away again? Responsibility doesn't seem to be his thing.
by generic on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 08:44:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, he's a Trumpian figure. He loves being "in charge". He gets to grandstand, be seen and be admired. That's what he thinks is the job of being Prme Minister.

the idea that it's a job requiring 24/7 attention is beyond his grasp. He will govern absently, as Trump does. Spening money on vanity projects of dubious worth.

But, being PM is his Precious, he wants it. He wants very much.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 03:33:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting twist:

IRELAND IS TO get two more European Parliament seats because of Brexit and Sinn Féin is calling on the Irish government to give them to Northern Ireland.

The call was made in a Sinn Féin submission the Constituency Commission which argues that citizens of the six counties of the north should continue to have representation in the European Parliament.

The majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted for the UK to remain in the EU and the border issue has emerged as one of the key stumbling blocks during Brexit negotiations.

Of course, they believe that they would both be Sinn Fein MEPs. Since you'd have to be an Irish passport holder to vote. Cute!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 10:32:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sinn Fein have all sorts of fancy ideas :
WILL THE UNION Jack ever fly over Leinster House in the scenario of a united Ireland?

Sinn Féin's finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty told RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta that he couldn't see the day when that would happen, but added that a discussion was needed to accommodate those of a unionist tradition in a new Ireland.

"We need a conversation about symbolism, for the million people who identify as British and who believe deeply in their identity. In this new Ireland, it is important that those symbols are part of this new Ireland.

[snip]

The party leader Mary Lou McDonald has made similar comments in the recent past, telling this website that she is open to discussions on Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth.

But not NATO, surely?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 10:38:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NATO is never part of the conversation. NATO is not seen as part of the British Irish relationship. Membership of the Commonwealth, on the other hand, provides the symbolism of a closer relationship with Britain while providing none of the substance, an ideal solution from a republican point of view.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 11:02:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i highly doubt it

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by liona rezz on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 at 05:25:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And how would the Republic of Ireland organize an election within N. Ireland? They could give a disproportionate representation in the EP to Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan, the three Ulster counties not in N. Ireland and allow N. Ireland based Irish citizens to register and vote there, but how many would travel to vote there? Even this would run counter to legislation providing for proportionality between representation and resident population. However a nice try by Sinn Fein, to leverage their dominance of N. Ireland nationalist politics, and effectively disenfranchise N. Ireland unionists. Of course the DUP did that all by itself in pursuing a policy of Brexit in the first place..

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 11:10:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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