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I'm afraid we have entered the phase of emotional irrationality where people are spoiling for a fight instead of solutions. BTW what was it that was deemed so 'humiliating' and 'disrespectful' at the summit? Tusk with the silly cake bit? Macron calling a spade a spade? Which reminds of the good times when Sarkozy told Cameron to "shut up".

'You're gonna respect us even if we have to jump off the cliff to show you!' The downside being not just the damage on British side but also a long-term strategic splintering. It will be very toxic. Will they turn themselves into an American colony (like some Brexiters are dreaming) just out of spite? A remarkable reversal of fortune and irony of history. Anyway, not good for Europe's wealth and security.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 08:25:45 PM EST
Sometimes if you over-play your hand in a negotiation the situation deteriorates to the point where solutions which might have been available a short time ago are no longer on offer. The EU's collective patience with and tolerance of May has effectively run out to the point where they don't care anymore whether she survives or not.

Paradoxically this may play well at the Conservative conference where at least some Tories may rally around their disrespected leader. Being insulted by the rotten boche can be a badge of honour.

But certain battle lines have been drawn. May is on her last chance. If the October summit is a wash, there may not be a November one.  At the very least May has to come up with a credible solution to the Irish border issue.

There have been suggestions that the Tories will look for a mandate from the N. Ireland people for a solution different from the mainland. This could be done by re-running assembly elections or having a referendum.

The DUP will probably go mad, but they can hardly object to new assembly elections given the current one is defunct. If nothing else it would buy the Tories some time.

From a N. Ireland perspective it would be refreshing to have a vote on something other than a pure sectarian tribal headcount. My only concern is that the vote should be on a very clearly worded "solution". Otherwise it will all just become a sectarian vote over sovereignty again, something which shouldn't be at issue.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 21st, 2018 at 08:59:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine May running a separate NI ref when she's relying on the DUP to prop up her non-majority.

I think the plan is to stall for time and crash out.

Psychologically, May is an extremely dangerous person. Every single thing her government has done has been violently angry, destructive, dishonest, and abusive - as the NHS, the police, the EU, and the various victims of institutional xenophobia and racism will confirm. (Among many others.)

So i think it's realistic to expect her to pick the option that will do the most damage to everything around her - which of course is a no-deal car crash.

When you consider that rich Tories will be able to move their money out of the UK, wait until the pound crashes, then buy up the smoking rubble on the cheap, there's no particular reason for them to want a deal.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2018 at 09:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Rich Tories and the rich men they represent. Those who want unregulated fuck-you capitalism aboard a floating casino/tax haven. Who've spent years poisoning the minds of the ill-informed with a continuous media onslaught on EU regulation couched as Brussels' dictatorship.

If the Tory party has a soul, which I doubt, there is surely a battle going on within it between these (and their very considerable influence) and the stodgier representatives of business-as-usual who fear the destruction and spoliation to come.

The frightening thing is that business-as-usual, in the absence of a champion, can only hope that May will serve their cause with a fudgy soft Brexit. I'm not sure she's dedicated to a crash-out. I doubt she has the consistency of mind for that, though you may be right she'd go there just out of spite.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 04:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
owed so much to afew...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 05:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...been about to get ripped off by afew.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 08:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
or be saved by even fewer?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 09:34:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Never forget that Theresa May is primarily a representative of the "unregulated fuck-you capitalism aboard a floating casino/tax haven" 1% of the 1%. She married one.

Her husband, and presumably herself, will benefit mightily in the Shock Doctrine shark frenzy to come after "No Deal".

The business as usuals are simply useful idiots for lobby votes, turkeys voting for Christmas in a very loyal "the farmers knows what they're doing" kind of way.

The rest of us are roadkill

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 07:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So the Parliamentary Tory Party no longer represents the concerns of a traditional Tory constituency of bosses engaged in trade, manufacturing, services, the "real economy", who are shuddering at the thought of the disruption a crash Brexit would cause. So May is intent on producing a crash-Brexit endgame. She will go before Parliament with whatever she (and the EU, if...) have cobbled together, in hopes she will be defeated and forced to resign and be replaced by Rees-Johnson or Boris Mogg.

OK, she's as mad as the rest of them. But as a way to stake your political career, it beats me.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 07:31:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The one real remaining imponderable in my scenarios for the future is what May will do when/if "her" Brexit deal is rejected by the House of Commons.

Will she resign the leadership and make way for Johnson-Mogg - who will then sail merrily towards a WTO rules Brexit - not realising that Trump has more or less destroyed the WTO and that the future could be trade wars?

Or will she "go to the country" and campaign for acceptance of her deal as the only way to avoid the "chaos" of a no deal Brexit or a Corbyn Premiership?

It depends on whether her primary loyalty is to her party or to the country.  If her primary loyalty is to herself, I suggest there is more dignity in going to the country and losing than simply resigning the leadership as an abject failure at the one main task you set yourself.

Given Corbyn would approve any decision to go to the country is their any constitutional impediment to her doing so - say if there is a prior challenge to her leadership in the 1922 committee? Is there any way Brexiteers can stop her?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 09:54:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, she won't resign but, and this is unlikely, the ERG might force her to go.

Right now there is a lot of smoke and fury around the Tory party. We will know far more about what it signifies after conference next week.

May's Strasburg conference was supposed to give her a bounce to see off her oppoents, just like her previous General election gamble. She is a serial stumbler, which is not a good look for a party of Government. But the Tories are still in compromise mode to maintain party unity. The brexit fanatics know they can bring May down anytime, but at the cost of destroying the Tory party. The Remainers and pro-business leavers know hope they can cobble an alliance across the Commons to prevent a "No Deal".

But a General election would be an end to all of their hopes. So, that's the least likely option unless a binding vote on the brexit deal is brought to the Commons. But even then, right wing anti-Corbyn Labour MPs will probably support the govt.

who knows? Really, it's all unknowable. People are plotting and planning in every corner, all hoping to advance their agenda and place themselves in positions of influence. the only thing they're ignoring is the well being of the country at large, which is stagnating and disintegrating due to the absnce of direction and leadership.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:25:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Strasbourg Salzberg

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:27:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jonny Foreigner being nasty to our PM may actually help her with some of the Tory faithful. Corbyn re-positioning himself in more centrist mode, supporting a referendum, will make it more difficult for most Labour right-wingers to rebel. I think the party system could reassert itself with minimal rebels on either side, meaning it could be all down to the DUP. I don't see how May could survive a Commons rejection of her deal without either resigning or going to the country, but who knows? This shambles gets more pathetic all the time.

If I were her I would call the DUP's bluff. If she follows through on the Backstop agreement with Ireland, the DUP have only one choice: suck it up or cause an election which might bring Corbyn to power. They will also be facing the Northern Ireland electorate having put Irish re-unification back on the agenda, ignored the N. Ireland vote to remain, not delivered on the £1 Billion in extra spending they promised, not restored the assembly or executive, in the middle of the Renewable Heat Scandal inquiry, and with Ian Paisley narrowly missing recall for taking over 50k in Sri Lankan bribes/holidays. If they end up with less votes than Sinn Fein their days could be numbered. Do they want to take that risk?

Looked at from the EU side I sense they scent blood and are preparing ever more seriously for a no deal Brexit. All have decided that no deal is better than undermining CUSM. If they play hardball enough, they may even get a new government/referendum with some possibility of UK remaining in a somewhat chastened state. There is almost zero incentive for them to seriously compromise at this stage. They're winning, so why give a sucker an even break?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 11:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A Parliamentary defeat on such an essential plank of government policy should normally, logically, in conformity to conventional rules (but how comical those words sound these days), result in the government's immediate resignation or in a motion of no confidence bringing about same.

May might hope to survive as party leader going into the ensuing election, because she's delusional. My tenner would be on Boris Mogg.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 01:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Mogg and the EU would be an ideal match. Neither want the other and would be delighted to be shut of each other. No need for complex deals or to worry about N.I. (Where?) An absolutely fabulous and utterly harmonious parting to the ways - until reality intervenes. But that need not be for some time yet. In the meantime Mogg's Dublin based investment funds clean up. Jolly good!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 05:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh I don't think she, along with many Tories, is the deepest thinker and probably does not recognise the contradictions between being pro-business and a distaer capitalist. To her they are all legitimate profit making enterprises.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Special Relationship.  The US ginned up the pseudo-intellectual "reasons" for the neolib/neocon cancer, raised the funding, built a lab in the UK (the Tory Party), and created a Frankenstein's Monster in Maggotty Blather, who in turn captained the test run for the real deal, the reign of The Blessed St. Ronnie Ray-gunz.  And it's been a Transatlantic race to the bottom of the tenth level of Hell in an undersized handbasket ever since.
by rifek on Thu Sep 27th, 2018 at 12:25:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The DUP will probably go mad

Umm, maybe you hadn't noticed, but madness is their defining characteristic

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2018 at 11:01:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I suppose there is this...
Key points from the [House of Commons] standards committee's findings

    Mr Paisley went on three luxury holidays to Sri Lanka at the expense of the Sri Lankan government in 2013.
    The committee found the cost "much higher" than the £50,000 Mr Paisley estimated.
    In 2014, Mr Paisley wrote to the prime minister to lobby against supporting a UN resolution on Sri Lanka over alleged human rights abuses.
    By failing to declare his trip, Mr Paisley "breached the rule against paid advocacy, the committee said.
    The committee acknowledged that there was "inconsistent guidance" in relation to registering such trips, but it did not "exonerate Mr Paisley from breaching the advocacy rule".

The recall petition failed by 444 votes to achieve the 10% of the electorate required to force Ian Paisley's dismissal. His constituency is the safest, most loyalist dominated constituency in N. Ireland, so many voters may have taken the view that his recall would be pointless: He would easily win the resulting bye-election thus providing the DUP with a public exoneration and propaganda victory. This was the DUP remains tainted by his corruption, although DUP leader, Arlene Foster's misbehaviour over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal is a far more serious issue.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 10:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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