Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Ultimately this is politics, not jurisprudence.

If there's a consensus within the EU that it would better if the UK stayed - and I believe there is - then the appropriate legal justifications will be found if the UK decides to change its position. Especially if it changes it after another referendum with a Remain result.

I don't think anyone in the EU wants May or her government to stay, except maybe Orban and some of the other far-right nutcases. But that's a different issue.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2018 at 03:17:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the EU's position is a little more nuanced than that. Clearly they are not going to be the ones insisting that the UK must leave if the UK decides that it actually was a bad idea all along. However, I don't think the EU is going to allow the precedent to be set that calling a Mulligan on an Art.50 notice is costless. That would create a world where you can give notice of your intent to leave, faff about wasting everyone's time and attention for two years, and then decide you don't actually like the prospect of leaving under the terms available to you after all.

So some kind of concession must be extracted from the UK to allow them to remain at this point. It's possible that simply changing the government will be sufficient, but it's also possible it might not.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2018 at 04:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You may well be right. IMO it's too early to tell.

At the moment we're some way from the UK remaining. But Corbyn has said he supports another referendum, and there are rumours of another GE soon. (Although there always have been rumours of an Autumn election.)

So currently it's a remote possibility, but not an impossible one.

My best guess is that May is still trying to stall and posture to hide the fact that she's dedicated to a crash-out, and always has been, because that's what she agreed when she was anointed PM.

But I could be completely wrong about that - and she really is as incompetent, passive-aggressive, and delusional as she appears to be.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 02:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am sympathetic to the people's vote campaign but just one question: what do they want to vote on? The real 'final deal' won't be available for years. It will be negotiated in the transition period. The withdrawal agreement is only going to contain a vague declaration about how the final deal is desired to be. But if they wait for the final deal then Remain will no longer be an option because the UK will be legally out by then.

Do they want to vote on the withdrawal agreement? That's just a rerun of Remain/Leave dressed up differently.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 03:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My tentative understanding is that the vote would probably be on The Deal (whatever that turns out to be) vs Remain.

Or perhaps The Deal, vs No Deal, vs Remain, with transferable votes.

A charitable interpretation of May's actions is that she set up Chequers as The Deal knowing it was impossible, which would leave Remain as the only possible result.

But that's more likely to be wishful thinking than reality.

Meanwhile rumours of a November election - possibly with a subtext of "This is your referendum" - are intensifying.

Of course, that could just be wishful thinking too.

In reality no one knows anything - including the people whose job it is to know things.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 04:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not everyone agrees.
The leader of the union that is Labour's biggest financial backer has said remaining in the EU must not be an option in any new referendum on Brexit.

Len McCluskey said it would be "wrong" and would risk pushing Labour voters who had backed Leave in the 2016 referendum to support the Conservatives.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 04:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But a "Deal or No Deal" referendum would be pointless, just another example of the UK thinking it's the only player at the table.  The EU's position is basically, "If you want to change your mind, we'll entertain that.  If you don't, the clock is already running, make a proposal."  A "Deal or No Deal" referendum would be seen as nothing but a lame attempt to stave off the deadline, and I don't see the EU being at all interested.
by rifek on Thu Sep 27th, 2018 at 12:13:29 AM EST
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