Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I don't know to what extend you have been following our discussions here, but my mainstream 80% probabiity scenario has always been that while May's government may or may not negotiate a deal, it will not be a very substantial deal, not covering future trading relationships, for instance, and that the chances of the House of Commons passing it will be quite small.

Hard line Brexiteers will reject it because of the compromises it will inevitably contain, include not a lot of substance for the £40 Billion up front payment. The DUP will reject it because the possibility of "regularity divergence" does not rule out to possibility of controls "in the Irish sea", and Remainers will reject it because it is so obviously far inferior to full membership or the sort of promises the Leavers made during the referendum campaign.

It's hard to be sure because there are a few Leavers in the Labour party who owe no loyalty to Corbyn and who are crazy enough to think that Brexiteers care for their constituents.

If anything has changed in my perception in the past few weeks it is that the May government has exceeded even my wildest expectations in its own incompetence, with the result that the probability of both a no deal Brexit and of Remain has increased perceptively.

The Labour Party's slumbering advance towards supporting a second referendum has increased both its electability, and the chance of Tory Remainers bring down the Government. Some achievements all round.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 26th, 2018 at 03:05:53 PM EST
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