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The smart folks at Eurointelligence seem to have become increasingly pessimistic...
EU doubling down on internal UK customs border - Eurointelligence
Word has reached us that the EU is now firming up its opposition to Chequers in such a way that we see little chance of retreat. Michael Barnier and his team have commissioned a report that suggests the long-term costs of Chequers to the EU would exceed the short-term costs of a hard Brexit.
It is possible that the two sides still reach a deal? For one, events might intrude. The UK might have a new government before Brexit - unlikely but possible. The mood in the UK population might turn against Brexit in a way that has not happened yet. EU member states may change their position once they acknowledge the reality of a hard Brexit which they have not yet. Also, Barnier's calculations are based on the result of an economic model - the kind of which always overestimated the impact of the single market in the past - against actual losses of income and jobs. We keep noting reports, in the German media in particular, about a second referendum. A hard Brexit would come as a total shock.
by Bernard on Tue Oct 2nd, 2018 at 06:46:03 AM EST
I find them rather stupid (for such smart people) on the Chequers cherry-pick.
They seem to think that the EU should cave in, simply on the basis that May can't compromise any further (that is true, but is not the EU's problem).

Finding a Brexit that May can sell to her Parliament is an impossible task anyway, and it is certainly not worth sacrificing the four freedoms to attempt it.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 2nd, 2018 at 07:20:09 AM EST
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I have been resigned to  No-Deal brexit for some months. Not just because I doubted the competence of those doing the negotiations on the British side, but because I doubted their actual desire for anything other than No Deal.

There have been too many unsubtle signallings from the powerful Disaster-Capitalists in both The City and their representatives in Westminster that a "No Deal" represented an incredible once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make out like bandits and re-model, ie gut, an entire modern society, legally and financially, for their advantage.

A still significant swathe of the population have been entirely fooled into thinking that life will be just fine outside of the EU and that we can, magically, return to the status quo ante of life before we joined the Common Market. That there are ships laden with produce from reliably white overseers in Commonwealth countries just waiting in the Channel for the go-ahead to enter port (to cheering crowds, presumably). That once we are freed from the leaden shackles of Brussels bureaucracy we will be entering the sunlit uplands of the lands of milk and honey from which we have been previously refused entry.

And anything that goes wrong will not be the fault of those who lied to them over a generation into securing a "leave" vote. No, it will be those sneaky dark skinned furriners across the channel, many of them french and smelling of garlic who have double crossed us yet again.

If we somehow avoid sinking into a biblical nightmare of starvation, polluted food and choking fumes, I shall be very surprised

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2018 at 01:31:46 PM EST
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