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Questions: should Brexit happen with no deal, what would happen at the Irish border?

Would the Irish government be compelled to implement checks on goods entering the Republic from the UK?

Failing that, would it push EU27 countries to start customs checks on goods from Ireland as well as from the UK?

It has always one of the Brexiters "solutions" to pull Ireland into a "UK customs union", obviously away from the EU Single Market.

by Bernard on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 07:55:42 PM EST
I have tried to answer that question in outline in the story above. Literally no one in Ireland is even discussing this issue in any detail.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 08:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We all need to stop electing cretins to run the place.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 11:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found this backgrounder quite interesting; it even explains some of your reactions that, at first, I didn't fully understand.

Why Dublin won't yield on the backstop - Eurointelligence

If border checks have to go up as a result of no deal, it may look materially the same, but it is politically a different story. For one thing, the responsibility for the debacle would rest squarely with London, particularly as seen from the narrow vantage point of Irish nationalism. The government in Dublin would still be shielded from Irish nationalists' accusation of having accepted some deal with London entailing the possibility of a return to border checks. To be clear, this is not just a question of appearances, but one of a possible revival of now-latent tensions in Irish politics, comporting a possible threat of Irish-on-Irish terrorism.

Just as importantly, the unspoken Irish gamble is that border checks as result of no deal would sooner or later be overcome. The hope is that the UK would find a no-deal relationship with the EU economically and politically so uncomfortable that reason would ultimately prevail. A chastened London would come back to the negotiating table to work out a deal with the EU entailing the restoration of an open inner-Irish border, this time for good.

by Bernard on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 07:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by Bernard on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 08:41:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At one level, the government is playing a long game - looking forward to a time when the DUP will no longer hold the balance of power, and UK objections to N. Ireland remaining within the customs unions disappear.

Sinn Fein is actually pushing for a referendum on Irish Unity in the event of a no deal Brexit. That would solve the border problem too, but most doubt such a referendum is winnable in the short term, and there is also the small matter of the £10 Billion p.a. London subsidy of the North, which Dublin cannot afford.

The official position is that this is a problem for the UK to resolve, either now or even after a no deal Brexit. It is a game of chicken. Dublin is hoping Brussels won't be too legalistic or impatient, and allow the situation to linger until a solution on the lines of N. Ireland remaining within the customs union is agreed. After all this only reflects the democratic wish of N. Ireland to remain within the EU.

In the short-term the problem may be relatively trivial - while there is no regulatory divergence or widespread imposition of tariffs. But the German's aren't noted for their ability to tolerate ambiguity - an Irish trait - and so sooner or later a crisis may occur.

The Commission should be wary of doing the UK's dirty work for them - and caving in to DUP obstinacy when the majority in N. Ireland clearly  want to live and work as part of the union. They have rights too.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 09:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sinn Féin accused of 'taking the Queen's shilling' in Brexit row | The Irish Times |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 09:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that Britain can afford £10 billion pa for N Ireland after brexit. There's a lot of things we won't be able to afford, but propping up a bunch of bigoted medievalists is one of the more easily removed.

I have long felt that if Westminster wants to sort out N Ireland, then the mainland non-sectarian political parties should organise there. Whilst they refuse to do so and allow sectarian parties to dominate political debate in Ulster to the exclusion of all else, then there will never be progress there.

The deliberate propagation of sectarianism by the Westminster Establishment is the most sure sign that Ulster is a colonial project. In consequence, all talk of it being an indivisable part of the United Kingdom is complete tosh, a knowing and deliberate lie promoted at the expense of community harmony for the sake of fostering a false sense of superior citizenship on the part of Protestants, against a catholic minority.

If non-sectarian parties organised, this sense of superiority would be revealed as baseless. Historically the Westminster Establishment never wanted to risk that inevitable sense of betrayal on the part of the protestants because of the importance of Befast to the defence establishment. I really don't don't believe Ulster is that important anymore. Ulster is disposable, even if Westminster won't admit it. Yet.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2019 at 10:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU27 already have customs surveillance for third-country import in place at its ports.

EU27 already have indicated to comical effect willingness to overlook low-value "slippage" between UK("NI") and IE.

The dilemma for UK is how to export bulk quantities of raw and finished goods (high-value) from the Big Island to EU27 and ROW without detection.

This board has been given many indications over the prior 6 months as to how EU27 intends to modify procedures and personnel, regardless feigned "technical" helplessness from UK gov.

To catch a pirate, one must think like a pirate.

The more pertinent and vital question is: How might EU27 facilitate movement of people between UK("NI") and IE in the event UK gov goes "full" North Korea?


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 09:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 10:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Republic of Wales, natch

Alternatively, Rest Of World

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 11:10:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the difficulty with "the big island" "exporting" goods to Wales or the rest of the world post Brexit?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 11:14:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
container (TEU) --load, transit, unload

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 06:35:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wherever it appears in my remarks, past or future

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 06:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit is essentially a dispute between countries that are currently within the EU. Trade with the rest of the world need not be impacted one way or the other, except perhaps by Sterling depreciation, and perhaps some depreciation of the Euro relative to the $. EU27 trade with the UK could be effected very greatly indeed, depending on the precise shape Brexit eventually takes, but trading with the ROW will be governed largely by the same WTO rules and FTAs as now.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 08:43:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct.

What are the consequences for UK trader given exit from EU? My remarks concern the consequences for UK traders on exit, given NI and IE are significant supply nodes in UK manufactures and distribution of ("marketing") unfinished and finished goods to EU27 and ROW.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 09:19:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is generally not a good idea for an island dependent on other nations to help manufacture, distribute or sell their products to piss off said nations...

Hence Ireland is (i) keen to remain in the EU, and (ii) anxious to maintain as functional and friction free trade with the UK as possible.

The UK doesn't seem to be as concerned about this, or else thinks that the ROW can't manage without them...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 10:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tory gov labors with the belief that UK manufacturer (any industry) will be able to replace trade with EU27, in part or wholly.

To accomplish this feat manufacturers require access to diverse, international air and sea ports as well as long-haul transport. Manifest and customs inspection will be inescapable.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 09:25:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
long-haul capacity

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 09:26:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I recall that trading with the ROW has been flogged here and elsewhere to no certain conclusion, except that it will not be simple and easy as implied in your comment by tagging along to existing WTO and phantom FTA rules. It will be a desolate chore to disentangle the island from 40 years of EU legislation and provisions and ferret out trade agreements on advantageous terms with the world's economic giants.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Jan 20th, 2019 at 10:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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